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Tuesday, 18 Jul 2006
This is the story according to Ynet news.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was sent to Damascus to
urge Hizbullah to curb rocket attacks against Israel and to release two
Israel Defense Forces soldiers captured a week ago in order to avoid
further escalations, a London-based Arabic daily reported.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat reported that a European
country warned Iran that Israel is ready for a confrontation with
Syria, which recently signed a defense alliance with Iran.The alliance stipulates that Iran would send arms and troops to back Syria should Damascus be attacked.
Iran was also warned that Israel is determined to crush Hizbullah's infrastructure and liquidate its leadership.
The report, which was based on leaks by an
Iranian presidential aide, said Iran is worried by criticism waged
against Hizbullah by an array of Lebanese politicians like Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri,
son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri.
The trio outspokenly attacked Hizbullah
for being Iran's proxy and condemned as "irresponsible" the kidnapping
of two Israeli soldiers.The official said: "Iran enjoyed a good reputation among the
Lebanese for supporting Hizbullah. Today, many of our allies have
turned their backs on us."
This report kind of sounds like crap, mainly because Iran never enjoyed any popularity in Lebanon outside the Shia circles, and Jumbalat, Seniora and Harriri were never their allies. But hey, if its true, then I am happy. Anything to end this war, man. It's only been a few days but it feels like months.
July 18th, 2006 at 12:06 pm
The Iranian regime has been deceiving itself about its popularity among Hizbollah and the Palestinians.
I guess people have been telling them “Everyone loves you here, baby. Give us more money and bigger rockets, please, nice brave Iranians.”
They are no more buying popularity than the US is buying it by giving money to Egypt. Gratitude is a very rare thing.
July 18th, 2006 at 12:21 pm
Ok, here’s what happened; maybe.
Iran and Syria signed a treaty. According to the treaty Iran will send troops should Syria be attacked.
The Iranian government is in trouble at home. Most Iranians don’t support them. A large minority don’t support their stance against Israel. A minority actually support Israel (the traditional Iranian position for 3000 years before the revolution). The majority that do support their stance against Israel do not agree that Palestine is more important than Iran’s own problems. They would rather have the Iranian government solve local problems or be replaced with one which would.
The Iranian government needs its troops at home to protect itself against its people.
Should the Lebanon conflict escalate, Syria will eventually be under attack (or start an attack) and Iranian troops will be called to the front.
At that point the Iranian government has two options:
1. Send the troops to help Syria at a great expense (they cannot easily pass through Iraq or Turkey and certainly not through Jordan, possibly not even the Suez). This will put the government in danger at home. If this danger is bigger than we perceive or if the Iranian government is more paranoid than it should be, that alone might frighten the mullahs.
2. Tell Syria to stuff it, thereby losing any and all goodwill among Arab nationalists and “Muslim” fundamentalists the Iranian government has worked hard to obtain. Syria will then lose the war as neither Jordan nor Iraq or Egypt will come to its aid. Syria needs Iran. The victory for Israel would come at a high price but it would be larger than any previous victory. Syrian Kurds and other minorities would rise up. Turkish troops would amass at the northern border to prepare for Kurdish (and Syrian) attacks. Syria would be totally under siege and without hope.
So the Iranian government is wisely choosing option 3:
3. Tell Hizbullah to stuff it. The original plan that included Hizbullah didn’t take into account Iran’s own problems. The war comes at a very bad time for Iran. I assume the nukes are not ready either. (Perhaps they will be a bit later, that’s why it must calm down for now!)
July 18th, 2006 at 3:23 pm
They will send troops, huh?
How many troops, I wonder. Maybe the few hundred Revolutionary Guard members currently stationed in Lebanon. How are they going to send more if Syria is attacked. They can’t seriously think about crossing through Iraq or Turkey and the Mediterranean entry to Syria will likely be blocked entirely.
Andrew is right. Neither Jordan or Egypt will aid Syria either. No Arab nation will.
Doesn’t sound too good for Iran.
News/views:
Did foreign intel finger Iraq’s WMD sites?
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/007528.php
July 18th, 2006 at 3:31 pm
An Unlikely Turn Of Events?
In other words; if Hizbollah doesn’t stop attacking Israel ASAP, it will be damaged severely. So much even, that it will not be able to hurt Israel for a long while.
July 18th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
> A minority actually support Israel (the traditional Iranian
> position for 3000 years before the revolution).
Alcoholism is a disease, no reason to be ashamed.
Look for a doctor.
July 18th, 2006 at 10:05 pm
On the other hand, Ahmadinejad seems to be promising something huge, and soon.
http://tinyurl.com/o95zd
I hope Iran remembers that Israel is an ally of the United States. An attack of enormous magnitude on Israel will be preempted by the U.S. if possible or answered by a massive, unprecedented retaliation. There are three American carrier battle groups in the area right now, each of which could level the entire nation of Iran.
I hope cooler heads prevail in Iran. Things don’t have to go in this direction. I find it it astonishing that after six years, people still think that Bush is just kidding around. It’s time for the people in that part of the world to grow the fuck up and stop making life-and-death decisions based on childish delusions of grandeur.
July 19th, 2006 at 3:19 am
When you see N-ass-arallah’s fat mug on posters next to boy Assad’s and Iranian agents plotting in Damascas to find someone they dont have to stick their necks out for ( or we’ll cut it off) , you know Nass is going down.
Tyrants dont stand rivals - or loosers. Especially weak ones with something to prove who’ll do anything to stay in power. At least their predictable in their evil.
If Hez. falls back into Syria - the Israelis wont need to attack. Deals probably been done already.