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Sunday, 30 Jul 2006
I just received word that things in Lebanon are, getting, ehh, a little secterian. There was stories of Shia refugees in a druze beighbourhood that tore up Walid Jumbalatt's pictures and posters that were hanging on the walls. There was another story of a Christian supermarkets refusing to sell groceries to Shia refugees, saying that they are saving it for the christians. I recalled a post that I read at Mustapha's blog the nother day, where the Shia refugees booed and heckled the FPM sunni youth while it was bringing them food and supplies, and I started to get slightly alarmed.
The Lebanese are currently united behind Hezbollah because they want the israeli shelling to stop, and the only people who are doing something about it are Hezbollah. But the moment ba cease fire takes place this could all change. I am more afraid of lebanse civil war than I am of what is going on right now, and I think many lebanese people would share my view. The Lebanese fabric maybe united right now, but it's secterian. And while I said that any civil war would be won by the Shia at this point, it doesn't mean it would be a pleasant victory, or that it would stop the other lebanese sects from fighting it. All it would take, for it all to go to hell, is for someone to do something stupid, someone else to retaliate, and mob rule will take over.
However, since I didn't want to be the lil monkey who cried civil war, I figured I would cruise around the lebanese blogs to see if the stories I've heard were isoalted incidents, or if there is a larger pattern taking shape here. I basically wanted them to comfort me that what's happening right now is the worst that Lebanon will have to endure. After reading a couple of them, such comfort now seems lacking. Here are a few examples:
This is a picture posted on Michael Totten's blog. It's of a christian mob attacking a car the other day for having a Support Hezbollah sticker on it.
There are the reports of Hezbollah firing their rockets from the Ain Ebel Village, which is christian, against its people's will:
But for some of the Christians who had made it out in this convoy,
it was not just privations they wanted to talk about, but their ordeal
at the hands of Hezbollah
— a contrast to the Shiites, who make up a vast majority of the
population in southern Lebanon and broadly support the militia.“Hezbollah
came to Ain Ebel to shoot its rockets,” said Fayad Hanna Amar, a young
Christian man, referring to his village. “They are shooting from
between our houses.”
And from behind churches as well, it seems:
Hezbollah has been firing rockets from the village since Day 1 hiding
behind innocent people’s places and even CHURCHES. No one is allowed to
argue with the Hezbollah gunmen who wont hesitate to shoot you and i ve
heard about more than one shooting incident including young men from
the village and Hezbollah.
The Hezbollah forces didn't hesitate at shooting such a man who didn't obey them:
One woman, who would not give her name because she had a government
job and feared retribution, said Hezbollah fighters had killed a man
who was trying to leave Bint Jbail.“This is what’s happening, but no one wants to say it” for fear of Hezbollah, she said.
And then you have the similar stories about the druze village of Mari and their desperate battle to keep Hezbollah out:
Not all villages in southern Lebanon are Shiite. Just above the
abandoned SLA base at the old Majidiyya estate on the Lebanon-Israel
border sits a small, quiet Druse village called Mari. You will not find
Mari on any maps, but at the beginning of the current conflict Mari
found itself caught between the Israeli Air Force, which apparently
wanted to avoid bombing the village directly, and Hizbullah, which
wanted to enter the town at all costs. You see, Mari's location would
provide the militia an excellent overview of the Israeli city of Kiryat
Shmona (and the settlement of Metulla, which is closer but much
smaller), and finding a way to operate there would give Hizbullah
increased civilian cover for their Katyusha rocket fire.Residents
who have recently escaped from Mari tell of a dramatic, desperate
situation in the village. The Druse residents, who have no affinity at
all for Hizbullah, resisted Hizbullah's attempts to enter the village.
The IAF apparently and unwittingly assisted in their resistance by
bombing the roads leading into the village, cutting off the militia's
ability to enter the town, at least temporarily. Hizbullah responded by
cutting off the town's electricity and water supply, essentially laying
seige to a town on its own side of the border, hoping that its
residents would pack up and leave. Many of them have done so. My
sources say that Hizbullah has been desperate to enter the village but
has as of yet been unable to do so in large numbers. Residents also
describe a growing humanitarian crisis in the village due to the lack
of fresh water.[...]
In the interests of clarity, let me reiterate what I have already said:
Hizbullah attempted to enter Mari not to defend it from attackers, but
so they could fire rockets from the village toward Israel. Hizbullah's
intention was to bring Israeli reprisals on the town, ostensibly to
destroy or damage it significantly, and to cause greater civilian
suffering. Hizbullah's MO and tactics are well-known in the south.
However, Druse typically defend their own villages, and in the case of
Mari (a place I have been to several times, many of whose residents I
know personally), the residents have desperately tried to keep
Hizbullah fighters out of their area.
And let's not forget the personal account with an old christian militant and war criminal, who are, apprently, is confirming that "the Youth" readying up for what they consider to be the upcoming war:
So today, I visited Tony and asked him if he was getting ready to fight
against the Hezbollah. He said that he was getting too old (he is in
his early 40s), and that the 18-year olds were mobilizing, but that
they don't have machine guns now. I asked him if they would receive
weapons from Israel. He said, "No, Israel is the enemy. Before it was
different. Israel doesn't care about any of the Lebanese." He
prophesized that a civil war will break out a month or two after the
Israeli bombing stops, and that Christians, Sunnis and Druze will fight
the "fucker Shia", with arms from the US and France.
If this goes down the only way it could, ehh…I shudder at the thought!
You know, I am not the praying kind, but I might start praying for Lebanon right about now. I think you should too.
July 30th, 2006 at 9:43 am
Questions by an outsider:
1) I thought there are two Shia parties, Hezbollah and Amal, the former religious, the latter laicist and pro-Syrian, and both of them fighting against each other in the 80’s civil war. However, now, Hezbollah seems allied to Syria, and Amal doesn’t seem anti-Hezbollah. Is there still Amal? Can Amal be an alternative to Lebanese Shia who doesn’t believe in Hezbollah?
2) What about Syrian Sunnis? Will they be happy if their (Alawite) gouvernment support Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon, with tensions rising between Shia Lebanese and Sunni Lebanese? Or is Syria so much autocratic that public opinion doesn’t count?
Thanks for answering.
A.
July 30th, 2006 at 10:48 am
A I don’t know about question 2 but question one is easy to answer.
Right now Amal is Hizbollah’s number one ally. After the elections Hizbollah insisted they only support Amal leader Nabih Berri to become speaker of the parliment, and now they trusted him to do all the negotiation on their behalf regarding the prisonners issue.
Amal is as allied to Syria as Hizbollah is.
Also on top of it all Amal has a reputation of being much much more corrupt than Hizbollah.
July 30th, 2006 at 1:36 pm
[...] Foreboding [...]
July 30th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
And if this civil war breaks out again, then hopefully the imbeciles running israel now will do something israel has never done before - stand behind its allies for the long term (do i hea SLA abandonment, anyone?)
Israel could do itself and the region a big favor by fighting the shia alongside the christian and sunni militias, but based upon their past inability to support their friends, I am not sure if they will this time around.
July 30th, 2006 at 2:55 pm
Good if worrying post, SM. Despite all the triumphalism in certain circles about the rallying around Hizbullah I always felt there would be consequences for them from this — they have to provide some guarantee to the other groups that won’t go off like that again by themselves.
I’m not too surprised about the anti-Walid Jumblatt stuff, but that could be because Walid Jumblatt has been so incredibly opportunistic over the past year that he looks ridiculous. One day he’s pro-Hizbullah, the next day he’s against them. It’s not necessarily anti-Druze.
Aside from whether Hizbullah will ever want to disarm, the Christians are going to be the real problem, because they have a confusing position towards Hizbullah: on the one hand they have little sympathy for the group and (perhaps rightly) fear it, and on the other the popular Christian leader Gen. Michael Aoun is Hizbullah’s main ally at the moment. There is also a wider question, one that Hizbullah has not raised so far as far as I know, of whether Christians would accept a redressing of the political breakdown that is more in accordance with a current population census — i.e. a Lebanon where they don’t automatically get the presidency. There was also a tendency towards re-militiazation of Christians way before the current war, notably around the Samir Jeajea movement (a neo-fascist militia during the civil war.)
Regarding the comments above, Israeli involvement in a Lebanese civil war (again) would be utterly disastrous. The Lebanese have to sort these issues by themselves, without Syrian or Israel or French or American involvement, and it will take a long time to find a compromise. (Which is why you can’t expect a new political order in Lebanon anytime soon, or disarmement of Hibzullah).
Regarding Amal, traditionally it was the party of Shia notables. It now only plays second fiddle to Hizbullah, and to some extent fronts for it. Nothing is simple in Lebanon.
Finally a couple of days ago I was watching the BBC and they had a man saying that is aunt, a Shia refugee from South Lebanon, had been killed by an Israeli strike while they were staying in a southern mostly Maronite village. There was no imam there, so the village priest conducted the death rites and buried her. There is still hope.
July 30th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
I agree, Bobby. Back in 2000 I was ashamed of my country. We left those people to die. We fucking ran away and left the SLA to be our flak jacket while we did it. That’s something I’ll never forgive Barak for. Withdraw from Lebanon, yes, but like that? Without an even temporary agreement that might just develop into something? With people who trusted us left behind to fend for themselves?
But there will be another Barak, just count on it. Another idiot who bends to social pressure and doesn’t bother to think of the consequences. Another politician who wants an apparent victory today and who doesn’t care about what it brings tomorrow.
July 30th, 2006 at 3:07 pm
Haven’t read the whole post yet, just skimmed, but I was stopped in my tracks by this sentence: “The Lebanese are currently united behind Hezbollah because they want the israeli shelling to stop, and the only people who are doing something about it are Hezbollah.”?????????!!!!!!!!!!!!
There’s a pithy comment like WTF, but I’m too much of a lady to use it.
Do I have to spell it out: without Hezbollah, there would BE NO ISRAELI SHELLING. Are the Lebanese really that deluded?
July 30th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
I asked a Lebanese bloger I know about it and she commented that those incidents seemed more Hizzbullah-population than sectarian attacks.She also says that Hizzbullah has little to no actual backing outside the Shi’a population.
July 30th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
More analysis from the “let’s intellectualize racism” crowd. Let’s make racism appealing.
You are making on thing very appealing - anti-Israeli sentiment.
Ya see what’s going on - the phony smarty pants dumb downs of Zions version of Judea are now catagorizing sandniggers into liitle subgroups - the “old” rhetorical divide and conquer stichk.
Why go to all the trouble if this is so easy for Israel?.
I like the one about the Druze Christians and the Labanese “whatever SandNigger Group to obfuse with angry ant-CHristian refugees. The Druze are Israeli war criminals. They helped pork belly jelly brain kill 3000 SandNiggers in 1982 - nobody likes them except dancing monkeys hoping their tiring lies will pull so called Christians behind Israel.
Most Christians - my dear racist “chosen”, are not into Israeli/Prophetized war crimes like Evangelicals are. Look at the churches who have dumped Israel investments and now Boycott Israel.
Eveyone hates Israel. Those that say otherwaise - are lying. And when we hear the the voices from the declining Jewish Church sell War Crimes with phony baloney analysis - intellectualized racism - we wait - we wait to see freedom rafts full of crying chosen delivering the world from the turmoil Israel has caused by paddling west on Freedom rafts when the real heros, the sandniggers Israel has been brutalizing - finally reclaim their franchise.
To future freedom rafting Israelis: One piece of advice - pray that none of the survivors or descendants of the sailors Israel murdered on the USS Liberty are driving the goyim sugar daddies big war boats when the freedom raft exodus west becomes the angy Euro-Jews last choice as the fake chosen in Galalee
Despite the cover US kosher TV gives Israel, we can all agree to one thing - no one likes Israel - and no one cares if Israel is here or not.
Raise your hand if you thing otherwise - do I see a hand - anyone?
So whatever yoy zio-racist intellectuals can do, like publish this kind of fluffy bovine excreted analysis, to move the end of Israel forward - by all means - let it rip - dance - dance for the war lords and oil barrons, monkeys, dance.
Peace.
July 30th, 2006 at 4:19 pm
Sandmonkey,
As as lebanese I can guarantee you that those reports are overblown.
Keep in mind that Ain Ebel was a former SLA stonghold, they wouldnt miss a chance to settle scores with Hizbullah.
Occasionaly, you will find some christian extremists spreading false rumors and inciting hate or some shiite fanataics looking for trouble. But those are minorities within their own parties/sect.
Rumors are part of our daily life. Every tiny incident, a neighbour fighting with his neighbour, is given a sectarian aspect when in reality it isn’t.
No civil war will hapen in Lebanon, the people are sick of it, the politicians have no interest in pursuing one and I also doubt the international community can afford one.
July 30th, 2006 at 5:14 pm
we should all pray for lebanon , may God defeat their enemy ever
July 30th, 2006 at 5:16 pm
I will continue to pray for Lebanon.
July 30th, 2006 at 5:33 pm
yep, praying will really make a difference
LOL
and to whom should we be praying? Daily practice shows G Bush to be a lot more powerfull then God/Allah. George at least has aircraftcarriers.
Everyone, pray to George, may He be bring peace and prosperity. Hallelujah!
Wolfhard, Holland.
July 30th, 2006 at 5:47 pm
Wolfhard,
It looks like you’re hot to play a little “find the quarter” with Dubby!
How exciting - a closet case Dutch Racist wondering if “her” yellow taffidile and “her” Joan Crawford Fuck Me Quick Pumps make him look fat.
You’re such a size queen Wolfhard.
If to condone what Israel is doing - killing SandNiggers and destroying Judaism - then please - share your inadequacies with the group.
PS - you do look fat in in Yellow Taffidile!
You sweaty little Porky Porker Wall FLower - sheesh girl - get a job.
July 30th, 2006 at 6:02 pm
Don’t worry, Wolfhard. Cadavre attacks all the new folks here with personal insults that make no sense. Someone compared him/her to that “Pink Panther” nemesis of Inspector Clouseau with the eye twitch. Cracks me up everytime I think about it. Chief Inspector Dreyfus
July 30th, 2006 at 6:26 pm
Regarding the picture
At least we know someone in Lebabon doesnt support Hezbollah
July 30th, 2006 at 8:38 pm
@ Jack,
no worries, in fact he reminds me of a internet-entity I previously encountered on a forum using the name Iago. Could it be?
Anyway, praying is the equivalent of defeat, maybe people should indeed take the latest post here on Sandmonkey seriously: Raise your white flag!
http://www.sandmonkey.org/2006/07/30/raise-your-white-flag/
July 30th, 2006 at 8:59 pm
You seem to be quoting from the Lebanese blogsphere selectively. Further, it also seems the NY Times and Washington post rely heavily on their ‘news’ from the blogs. A lot of what you quoted here was copied verbatim by the NY Times as ‘news’.
SM I think your bias isn’t helping you see the clearer picture. The Lebanese Christian and Druze war lords depend on the Gulf for financial and political cover (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait). The Gulf, on the other hand, have their balls in Nasrallah’s basket after the people’s anger turned into a potential instability problem.
Time will tell, but you are not a very reliable analyst because you are blinded by your biase .Dont try to pass yourself as one.
July 30th, 2006 at 11:51 pm
The last thing the Gulf states want is a Hezb’allah/Iranian victory. They have never had much trouble controlling “the people” before and they wont have now either.
July 31st, 2006 at 12:55 am
not that I’m doubting the p[osibility of sectarian strife in lebanon, but this photo looks fake.
July 31st, 2006 at 1:21 am
Relax buddy, this is not as mainstream as it appears
July 31st, 2006 at 3:07 pm
Once again you’ve outdone yourself Cadavre, now criticism of religion and/or it’s proponents is “racism” and provokes wild (though entertaining) personal attacks.
What race is it that is being atacked then Cadavre? The Godopeans, Allahiatics, Allahicans, Goditics? i’m intrigued, do tell.
August 1st, 2006 at 12:13 am
Zionist hyenas live from cadravres.
Sectarianism destroys Iraq - may destroy - house nigger is
eager for that - Lebanon.
House nigger should look for a real job.
August 1st, 2006 at 2:15 pm
Ask Mel!
Poor Mel Gibson! Talk about foot in mouth! “The world is having a Mel Gibson moment….