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Saturday, 26 Aug 2006
Michael Young thinks that the world got hoodwinked by the Party of the Allmighty!
Well, since it's all settled that Hezbollah has won, let's just open a
six-pack of non-alcoholic beer and drink to the health of the party's
secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, the Arab world's latest Che Guevara.But what kind of victory is this that, even by Hezbollah's unexacting
standards, must qualify as a major setback? In its public appraisals of the
conflict, Hezbollah has ignored what Israel did to those parts of Lebanon
the party cannot claim as its own. Its cries of triumph have been focused on
the stubborn resistance put up by Hezbollah combatants in south Lebanon.
Nothing has been heard from party leaders about the billions of dollars of
losses in infrastructure; about the immediate losses to businesses that will
be translated into higher unemployment; about the long-term opportunity
costs of the fighting; about the impact that political instability will have
(indeed has already had) on public confidence and on youth emigration; and
about the general collapse in morale that Lebanon faces.Let's forget such trifles for a moment and use Hezbollah's own benchmark.
Even there, the evidence points to a net loss for the Shiite militia.Take the rationale for Hezbollah's rockets. For some time it has been
obvious that the weapons, estimated to number between 10,000 and 15,000,
were mainly there to help deter an American or Israeli attack against Iran's
nuclear facilities. Nor did the Iranians distinguish between aggressors.
Last May, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Rear Adm. Muhammad-Ebrahim Dehqani
stated,
"We have announced that wherever America does something evil, the first
place that we target will be Israel." He didn't mention Hezbollah or
Lebanon, but it didn't take much discernment to see that Iranian retaliation
would at least partly come from across Israel's northern border.Does that deterrence option still exist? Yes and no. Hezbollah is believed
to have many more rockets in storage and its network of bunkers in south
Lebanon is probably mostly intact. However, it cannot initiate a conflict
without facing the political fallout of imposing new suffering on its
already traumatized Shiite community. Almost a million Shiites were thrown
into the streets by Israeli bombardments between July and August. Hezbollah
has started
distributing
money to the community, but that won't pay for much of the horrendous
suffering—lives lost, profitable businesses closed, self-respect gone
for those without homes or livelihoods, and much else that cash handouts
cannot remedy.Nasrallah would likely obey an Iranian request to attack Israel once again
if the Tehran regime deemed that to be necessary. However, Shiites making up
Hezbollah's base of support may not be so eager to be turned into cannon
fodder for a country thousands of miles away. That's why the party's
deterrence capacity has suddenly become very costly.
Not to mention, I am not sure that Nsrallah wanted to use his weapons to begin with. As much as the "surprises" must have thrilled the Al Manar watchers, what they also did was give Israelis something they didn't have for a long long time: Intelligence on Hezbollah's capabilities. They now know they have drones laced with explosives, that they have serious targeting problems and that 90% of their rockets miss. Let's not forget also the on the ground intel they must've accumulated from ground fighting on Hezbollah's trenches and tactics. The Israeli army is an adaptive learning entity, and it will use all of this to its advantage in case round two starts. Plus, the iranians won't be able to replenish the Hezbollah rocket inventory anytime soon. It did take them 20 years to get it where its at right now, and now that alot of it is gone over a war started by the kidnapping of two soldiers, the iranians aren't exactly happy.
BTW, did anybody else notice that for someone who just won a "decisive Victory", Nasrallah isn't exactly taking the streets in parades of celebrations? Anybody else notice that our courageous resistnace leader- our Che- remains hiding?
I wonder why that is….
August 27th, 2006 at 1:20 am
I would say that nobody won, but then it is irrelevant who won that particular battle. The question is what happens now. Will there be a brave leader in Lebanon along the lines of Sadat to take on HA and agree a peace deal with Israel? If not the next battle is just around the corner.
August 27th, 2006 at 1:56 am
Hezbollah won. Lebanon and Israel lost. It’s a fairly easy conclusion. Hezbollah did not suffer that many casualties, was able to fire hundreds of rockets, gain some measure of internatoinal sympathy, fight back a failed Israeli ground invasion, gain a ceasefire, keep its leader alive, and not lose anything by the end. HA is now more popular than ever in south Lebanon and is taking damn good care of its people.
Israel lost 100 soldiers in a month-long war that achieved nothing and caused the world to hate it more, its war was so badly fought that about 2/3 of the citizens want the administration to resign.
Lebanon lost the most. 900 innocent civilians killed for absolutely no reason. It’s entire infrastructure decimated, the city it worked so hard to rebuild is now destroyed again. It will now have to rebuild from scratch, with an economy that will lose billions this year.
Fuck Israel. Fuck Hezbollah.
August 27th, 2006 at 3:43 am
My look at the Michael Young piece:
A few more Hizballah victories like this one and Hizballah will be out of business. A few more Israeli losses like the one they suffered in Lebanon and they will control all of Lebanon. Some victory. Some loss.
The Bitter Taste of Victory
I look at an Amir Taheri piece:
As reality starts to intrude into the Middle East Amir Taheri in Opinion Journal (Hat Tip: Ted Belman of Israpundit) notes that Israel and the west may have lost the propaganda war but Hizbollah has lost the Arabs. Lebanese Shiit Arabs.
Hizbollah Beats Israel Loses Arabs
August 27th, 2006 at 4:57 am
Mideastbeast,
If the Lebanese don’t do something about Hizballah then Israel and Hizballah will start fucking each other over Lebanon’s dead body. Now, is that decent?
August 27th, 2006 at 7:03 am
I agree with Sandmonkey, Israel will adjust. They will also adjust their leadership. Hizbollah only won by surviving. Next time, with aggressive leadership, Israel will probably deal the death blow to Hizbollah. And of course, Lebanan will suffer some more. Unless the Lebanese remove the terrorists.
August 27th, 2006 at 9:40 am
Does anyone have good information on where Nasrallah is hiding these days? Is he in Damascus?
August 27th, 2006 at 5:43 pm
I only see a bunch of religious loosers!
Go Fu.. yourselves!!
August 27th, 2006 at 5:51 pm
Hi Sandmonkey,
I’m wondering if you can cite other sources to back up your claims about Iran in this blog than Debka? Debka has plenty of its own biases (as should be clear from some of the mossad advertisements). Debka is not a news outlet and personally I wouldn’t feel comfortable using it for a legitimate source, most especially if it was the only one I had. Out of my own personal curiousity, I’ve shown the site to a few reporters working in the field (specific to the Middle East, as well), and none said they would feel comfortable citing Debka as a source.
I’m not trying to suggest you’re lying. I found the claim very interesting, and I would really like to see at least a few other sites with differing ideologies, or another more commonly recognized newsource.
August 27th, 2006 at 8:47 pm
From Egypt with Love and Peace:
19. (AP)
Mellow view from Egypt Mufti: True face of blood-sucking Hebrew entity exposed— “Sheikh Dr. Ali Gum’a publishes article in establishment newspaper al-Ahram in which he claims ‘lies of Hebrew entity’ expose ‘ugly face of blood-suckers… who prepare matzo from human blood’.”
August 28th, 2006 at 2:36 pm
100% of Hezbollah destroyed
FACTS ! Undeniable facts….
Israel gets back the two soldiers.
Israel disarms Hezbollah.
Israel stops the rocket attacks.
Israel does not give-up any land.
Israel chases Hezbollah to the north.
Israel Doesnt lose any tanks, helicopters or war ship in the six day battle.
August 28th, 2006 at 2:38 pm
Can you imagine if the Warsaw resistance had a leader like Nasrallah…the holocaust may have never happened.
August 29th, 2006 at 12:01 am
[...] HIZB’ALLAH VICTA? “the perception that Hezbollah won the recent war in Lebanon is incorrect. Via SandMonkey: “Michael Young thinks that the world got hoodwinked by the Party of the Allmighty!” …. (powerlineblog, sandmonkey) [...]
August 29th, 2006 at 4:03 pm
hfpoef hfhifeih,
The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising occurred whilst the Holocaust was going on full steam. An unlike Israel, the Germans showed no mercy towards anyone or anything, carpet bombing the Warsaw Ghetto.
That said, Hizbullah is like a cancer- if you don’t completely eliminate it, you’ll never full win the war. And Israel isn’t willing to use those methods, as they have little interest in harming innocent civilians.