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Sunday, 17 Dec 2006
I can't believe I overslept today.
I was so obsessing about the weblog awards, and worrying about some sort of last hour voter ressurgance for one of my competitors, that I stayed up till 4 am today checking out the results. And that's why I couldn't wake up to today's demo, which was at 10 am. (I am really sorry Nora. I really wanted to come)
However, when I finally woke up around 11, I called Hosam who informed me of how things were going down and how he was leaving. I ended up meeting up with him in Zamalek around 12, and he looked like he has been through hell. He informed me that they have lost the case, as expected, and that one of the reasons in the Judge's opinion regarding the verdict has been that Baha'ism totally opposes the concept of Jihad, which is apprently such a vital part of Islam in the Judge's eyes, that he deemed the religion incompatible with an islamic state like Egypt. He then proceeded to tell me what happend after the verdict, which was so depressing that I don't even feel like re-telling it. You can go and read his account of what went down here if you can stomach it. Me, eprsonally, can't go through it a second time. The amount of hatred and bigotry expressed by the muslims on the scene is too shameful to hear about it once, let alone twice.
I can't help but feel bad for the egyptian Baha'is though for living in this country in these times. What they have to go through is nothing short of hellish. I know this Baha'i guy who broke my heart when he told me his story. He and his wife had managed to get ID cards with Baha'i written in the religion category back when it was possible in the seventies. And then , very recently, his wife passed away, so he went to the government trying to get a death certificate in order to be able to bury her, which the government official refused to issue, because the woman was Baha'i and he can't issue a death certificate with Baha'i written in the religion category. So the man ended up having to spend 2 days with the corpse of his wife lying in his living room, while he seeked help from NGO's and Human rights organizations. The Human rights organization threathend to internationaly scandalize the egyptian government for the horrible ordeal they were putting this man through, so the government, as a compromise, agreed to issue her a death certificate, only with "Muslim" written in the religion category. So the guy agreed in order to bury her, and now she is declared muslim as far as the government is concerned, adding insult to injury.
Stories like this one are not the exception when it comes to what the Baha'is go through on day to day basis, and things will only get worse for them as time goes by. I have no words of condolences to give them. This is a country where the majority of the people have become mean, bigoted and intolerant towards anyone who isn't a muslim. Idealistically I would tell them to stand their ground, to fight for their freedom of religion right, but at this point I really think it would be nothing short of a cruel exercise of futility. So I tell you this with nothing but sympathy in my heart: seek greener pastures people. Go to another country where the majority aren't so insecure when it comes to their own religion and filled with hatred and bigotry for anyone who is different. Leave and don't look back. This country is going to hell on the hands of its own people, and the day will come when they will get exactly what they deserve! It won't be pretty, I can assure you that much!
December 17th, 2006 at 1:06 am
SM-
I get it…but I don’t get it…
I know the Bahai’s were actually hunted down and killed in Iran during the early years of the revolution. One Bahai lady I met at my bank back in those days (around 83) told me that her brother was arrested, shot and that the family was charged for the price of the execution…including lone bullet to his head.
A little on the cruel side would you think?
And now this? What I heard is Islam was against the Bahai’s because the Bab claimed to be the 12th Imam or something along that line?
I don’t know…maybe because I am American and we have SO many religious camps that really have not much killed each other lately…it just seems to incredibly over the top. I mean…are the Bahai’s such a threat to Egypt…like so many Israeli tanks rolling down the streets or something?
It would seem to me that Islam is in bigger trouble than I thought if they are picking on these guys. Whose next? Druse, Sufi’s, Mormons?
December 17th, 2006 at 1:14 am
I remember I had a conversation with a friend who shares a mutual interest for the state of Egyptian affairs.
We did our best to forcast the future of Egypt in the next 10 years. We concluded that the best thing we could do is brace ourselves for the worst and consult government officials here in the U.S. in anticipation of the fall out.
If we cant save our country we will at least save our family, friends and anyone else who wants to escape.
December 17th, 2006 at 1:18 am
HEY!!! Just one minute!:
“The government must find a solution now for the hundreds of citizens who used to be able to obtain official documents recognizing their faith for more than five decades until the government decided recently to change its policy and force them to choose between Islam and Christianity.”
No JOOZ? NO JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ?
December 17th, 2006 at 1:27 am
I am disappointed.. I have heard a lot of stories about the daily struggle of Bahaies today.. But Bahaies are hopeful.. and they won’t leave the country..
There is still a lot to be done for this cause SM. After the stoties I heard today we have to be working on a documentary on the Bahaies ordeal..
Call me to tell you more. Nora
December 17th, 2006 at 4:52 am
Pathetic. My mother is herself friend with a Bahai woman in Lebanon. She must have ‘Shia’ on her ID, can you imagine?
December 17th, 2006 at 5:14 am
Imagine if americans treated muslims in the US the way muslims treat everyone else in muslim countries. Muslims are by and large hypocrites, plain and simple. There’s a michigan muslim woman bitching about not being allowed on a bus with a full bag over her head. Now, she and the aclu wants financial compensation for her “humiliation.”
You give them an inch and they walk all over you, and will bitch if you don’t let them (walk all over you).
December 17th, 2006 at 5:36 am
Congratulations! It looks like you’re 2006’s “Best Middle East or Africa Blog” by a wide margin.
December 17th, 2006 at 7:02 am
I’m really disappointed in you SM. I would think you of all people would be the type to put politics and the greater good ahead of personal ego boosts like lame web blog awards. The web blog awards are only voted on by a couple thousand people and are arbitraty and subjective titles based on who can muster enough fans to get to the sites on time. And you had a huge, insurmountable lead anyway.
December 17th, 2006 at 8:11 am
See, this is one of the big differences between the U.S. and the Middle East. In the U.S., most people who even have heard of Bahais in the first place consider them harmless and nice. Then you hear that Islamist and Islamist-trending gov’ts are *persecuting* these folks and you think, WTF??? Are we talking about the same religion? Come on! If Islam is “all that” in the way that Islamists make it out to be, surely it can coexist with a few nice Bahais . . . ?
However, my main question is, if Egypt is a “secular state” as we in the West hear (SM, you can scoff loudly here), then what in the heck is a judge doing quoting “jihad” in a judgment in the first place?
December 17th, 2006 at 9:44 am
One of the things that will help this country to become a better place is , speration of religion from state.
December 17th, 2006 at 9:58 am
Maybe they can go to Israel…
Pics of the Bahaii gardens in Israel:
http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/printthread.php?t=38287
December 17th, 2006 at 10:38 am
“Muslims are by and large hypocrites, plain and simple. ”
No, they are not. They are saying “My sect of Islam is the only true religion, full stop. All other beliefs are false and evil, and anyone holding beliefs different from mine should be treated as a criminal, and preferably killed.”
That is a perfectly honest and open approach. There is nothing hypocritical about it.
December 17th, 2006 at 10:44 am
The Inevitable Concession Post
Well, we all knew this post was coming.
On Friday evening the polls closed on the final round of voting for the Weblog Awards… and not surprisingly, the best man won. Since ‘discovering’ him back in July during the
December 17th, 2006 at 11:20 am
It is sad when the state subscribes to the hate-speak of the religious. About five years ago all hell broke loose because the committe for the protection of personal information (it doesn’t translate like that, I’m sure, but that’s the gist) decided that the ID cards shouldn’t have religion on them, as it is irrelevant for the purpose of identifying citisens and avoiding fraud.
The Athens Archbishop (I don’t call him “our Archibishop” for he certainly isn’t mine) went primate excrement, got the like-minded reliious nuts on the streets shouting how christianity is under attack and ow th EU is trying to push the orthodx faith out because itis the lnoe bastion of the greek ethnic identity and he bearerof the Truh and so forth.
The goverment and the judges ignored him, the ID cards now have useful information lke the names in both in greek and latin alphabet ( and now they double as passports for travellingin the EU) and the blood type and it was proved beyond doubt that christianity is going strong in Grrece because after the revelations of sex and corruption in the Geek Church two years ago the entire country did NOT immeidately become believers of the Flying Spagghetti Monster.
I fear for your country SM. the Lord makes those he wishes perished idiots.
December 17th, 2006 at 12:29 pm
God spare us from religious bigots- “my brand of medieval made-up mumbo-jumbo is clearly superior to your brand of medieval made-up mumbo-jumbo!”
December 17th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
I wish Egypt and other countries would stop doing is stop identifying people by their religion. Stop putting it on their ID cards. Stop putting it on death certificates. I guess that is a long-shot and intertwined with all the other issues (like the lack of gov’t/religion separation)…
December 17th, 2006 at 3:20 pm
one of the reasons in the Judge’s opinion regarding the verdict has been that Baha’ism totally opposes the concept of Jihad,
Well, that explains it! If you reject internal spiritual struggle how can you possibly help to better yourself in the eyes of God!
They did mean jihad in that sense, right? Internal spiritual struggle?
I’m sure they did.
In any event, I’m sure the UN, defender of human rights globally, will be all over this matter….
December 17th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
“In any event, I’m sure the UN, defender of human rights globally, will be all over this matter….”
Certainly on their radar anyway
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=56582&SelectRegion=Middle_East&SelectCountry=MIDDLE_EAST
December 17th, 2006 at 4:32 pm
Certainly on their radar anyway
Unfortunately that is as far as these sort of things tend to go. The UN notes them “for the record,” so it can claim later on that it wasn’t ignoring the issues when it was really doing nothing substantive about them. In fact, if you read the article, you’ll notice that there was basically no condemnation of the Egyptian government at all.
On to more vital topics like “Zionist aggression against Palestine” and “Danish cartoons and Islamophobia.”
Frankly, I think the Baha’i should adopt “Judaism” on their identification cards just to piss off the authorities.
December 17th, 2006 at 5:12 pm
“Frankly, I think the Baha’i should adopt “Judaism” on their identification cards just to piss off the authorities.”
LOL i second that one, tommy! but can u possibly imagine what kind of discrimination they’d havta put up with if they actually do?
December 17th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
FYI, to those who were asking about “the Jooz,” there are only a few dozen Jews left in Egypt, and most of those are very, very old women. The Jewish community in Egypt, which is many hundreds of years old and was once incredibly large and flourishing, will probably disappear completely in the next decade or so. Between being beaten up, incarcerated, heavily taxed, etc etc for being Jewish, most of them left for greener pastures (Israel, France, the US) in the 1950’s, 60’s, and early 70’s. Most of the Jews one might encounter in Egypt these days are either students, diplomats, or tourists - that is, they are there temporarily.
And, yeah, there is a nice little Bahai community in Haifa, Israel. Nowhere near as large as one might guess, given the prominence and grandeur of their temple there, but they do exist and live very freely.
December 17th, 2006 at 6:14 pm
Q for you Egyptians: what religion do Copts have in their ID cards?
December 17th, 2006 at 8:27 pm
I’m not leaving! and I won’t go anywhere! (except maybe for my post grad) Don’t be that hopeless SM, I know things look really REALLY bad, but remembe the Civil Rights movement in America, it took them decades upon decades, from the days of the Underground Railroad and Harriet Tubman, to Malcom X and Martin Luther King… It started with a dream, and if the early ones had given up and left, it would have never been achieved and there would still be slavery in the US today. The idea is that maybe we won’t get to enjoy the rights and freedoms we’re hoping for, maybe our children won’t either, but for a certain future generation to have these rights and freedoms the fight has to start, and I guess it already has, we can’t be selfish and give up, even if that bright future we want will come long after we die. So if your faith runs out, think about how years from now you would have contributed to a just, free society, where people’s rights are guaranteed…. just a thought.
December 17th, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Rediculous…I would have loved to be there to kick the bearded men and the woman who were celebrating in the fucking face!!
What has happened to our damn country? we used to be the country that Armenians, greeks ect… and people of all faiths wanted to come and live in back before Nasser.
December 17th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
ps: i posted a bulletin with this article on EGYPTs Myspace page that i created which has almost 1000 members. http://www.myspace.com/egypt_masr
December 17th, 2006 at 9:43 pm
I don’t understand why there are so many problems in Egypt with religion yet the world doesn’t do anything about it.. yet in Lebanon the problems are based on religion and widely televised.. Is the Egyptian Media controlling all these issues so that the world can view it as a democratic country. I am sorry.. when you have a democracy then you have proper elections. Also human rights regulations should not be questioned.. The arab world is so screwed up.. They would rather give gratitude and so much blessing to a kafer who doesn’t believe in God to people and arabs in the same country who are minority groups…
That is why I would never ever live in an Arabic country!! EVER! The level of discrimination is TOO HIGH!
December 17th, 2006 at 10:21 pm
“Muslims are by and large hypocrites, plain and simple. ”
No, they are not. They are saying “My sect of Islam is the only true religion, full stop. All other beliefs are false and evil, and anyone holding beliefs different from mine should be treated as a criminal, and preferably killed.”
That is a perfectly honest and open approach. There is nothing hypocritical about it.
—————————-
What I meant is that when muslims move to western countries, they expect and demand equal rights, sometimes special rights but then they do not care about the rights of others. You criticise their religion or culture and they call you a bigot, racist, and want laws passed to punish you for your free speech. However, they do not hold themselves to the same standard they prescribe to nonmuslims. That’s hypocrisy, plain and simple. Or maybe you were being sarcastic.
December 17th, 2006 at 10:38 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if death camps were to follow. Oh I’m sorry. Did I say “death camps”? I meant “Happy Camps”. According to AJ anyway. What kind of mass hysteria has to infect a population for “reasonable” people to believe in this kind of shite? Is it really simply a case of poor education because I’d argue that kindness, empathy, and brotherly love isn’t something that is exclusively taught in snooty schools. How f-ing stupid do you have to be that you can ignore the fact that these are human beings who are suffering simply because they exist?
December 17th, 2006 at 11:26 pm
@ Oliver Picker #14 :
“the revelations of sex and corruption in the Geek Church”
where do I sign up for the Geek Church ?
December 18th, 2006 at 12:49 am
Just a little Egyptian compliment…on the what the old days were…
Not only was there a flourishing Jewish commuinty in Egypt, but among the greatest of all post-biblical Jewish lived there…CHOSE to live there…Moses Maimonedes…or Rambam.
What is interesting is there is a Talmudic dictate “not to return to Egypt because you were salves there” …in fact, I believe he WROTE it.
Apparently though, the situation then was so positive in Egypt that he admittedly broke his own rule.
Is there somebody out there that is more familiar with this story? Brooklyn Jon maybe? Raccoon?
Anyhow…it is loss for Egypt…hell maybe Einstien would have grown up there and then you would have had the A-Bomb
Isis-…the civil right movement in the USA was very long and difficult. One enormous difference y’all have to be aware of…is the USA had a free press, freedom of speech etc. Of course those rules were broken all over the place, but it was MUCH harder to get away with stuff and much easier to keep the heat on.
In fact, several Jewish civil rights workers were murdered in the South. Talk about free press…somebody kept the heat on and they just recently caught one of the murderers…40 years after the fact almost.
Anyhow…being a civil rights activist in a totalitarian country is a bit trickier than what was done in the USA. But I do wish you luck with that journey. Better pull it off in Egypt before folks like the MB get into power…after that…its likely Ninja suits for all and their moral patrols will likely make the current government looked like they played patty cake.
Look at Iran or Afganistan for recent examples…
December 18th, 2006 at 2:27 am
Well, I don’t know about that one, Howie… but I know this one! “When they had gone, an angel of the Lord appeared to Joseph in a dream. “Get up,” he said, “take the child and his mother and escape to Egypt. Stay there until I tell you, for Herod is going to search for the child to kill him.” So he got up, took the child and his mother during the night and left for Egypt, where he stayed until the death of Herod. And so was fulfilled what the Lord had said through the prophet: “Out of Egypt I called my son.”
Merry Christmas!
December 18th, 2006 at 3:28 am
Come on, where’s the rabid sectarian raving I’ve come to know and love? I want to hear some “My God’s dicks is bigger than your God’s dick” banter between the Christians, Muslims, and Jews.
Anyway, have a happy eight days of fake lamp miracles and a merry imaginary savior day!
December 18th, 2006 at 4:12 am
They were labeled “pro-Israeli apostates” by the court apparently. Lol!
http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014449.php
Now I really believe that claiming ‘Judaism’ on their ID cards is the way to go. After a few years and a seeming explosion in the growth of the Jewish population in Egypt, the authorities will be dying to give the Baha’i their own designation.
Hell, the Baha’i should even temporarily adopt Hanukkah until they get their way. Maybe make a big display out of celebrating Hanukkah every year. Fly the Israeli flag. Introduce a few Yiddish phrases into the local vocabulary. Wage a regular Jewhad on the authorities until they relent.
“You wanted Zionist Jews, bitches! You got Zionist Jews!”
December 18th, 2006 at 6:56 am
Anon,
However, they do not hold themselves to the same standard they prescribe to nonmuslims. That’s hypocrisy, plain and simple.
No, it’s not. Not on a personal level, at least. That’s the way the Quran is written. One of the unique things about the Quran is the different legal and social standards for believers and non-believers. I haven’t heard of another religion that has that.
December 18th, 2006 at 8:41 am
# 33 Tommy “You wanted Zionist Jews, bitches! You got Zionist Jews!”
Oh, I like that. I am so stealing that.
December 18th, 2006 at 9:19 am
OT, but that UK rape study done by a blogger which some people thought was incorrect, well look at this Norwegian report carried out by the police.
http://www.aftenposten.no/english/local/article190268.ece
December 18th, 2006 at 9:32 am
what happen to lakom denakom w le deen? i feel sick just sick
December 18th, 2006 at 10:22 am
How cruel and pathetic our fellow humans can be, but there is hope. Your clear eye and warm heart shine a light into the darkness.
Your Weblog Award is secure and richly deserved.
Keep on bloggin’.
December 18th, 2006 at 10:52 am
The PC crowd musta fallen asleep at the wheel to let that one slip out.
December 18th, 2006 at 8:25 pm
Daffersd, what Mr Henry Morgan published was not a study. It is bogus. You do not have to believe me. You can easily check it yourself:
- Do the data Mr Morgan used say anything about the criminals’ affiliation? – No.
- Did he use the rape convictions? – No.
- Did he use the rape report rates at least? – No.
- Would he have had to do so to compare the data between the boroughs? In other words: do the numbers of inhabitants vary significantly between the boroughs? – Yes.
- Is it difficult or awfully time consuming to let Excel calculate the rates? – No.
- Would it have been too difficult or too time consuming to let Excel calculate the rates for all of the boroughs? – No.
- Does it change the picture if you use the data of all boroughs? – Yes. (Please check it. You will be suprised where to find the boroughs with the highest rape report rates. And please do not forget to check the percentage of Muslim inhabitants.)
- Do the data Mr Morgan used allow him to calculate trends for rape reports against the percentage of Muslim inhabitants? – No. He took the rape report numbers of several years, but the Muslim percentage of one financial year.
Now let us have a look at the article in Afterposten: Does it say anything about convictions? – No.
So what does it say? It says: “Nine out of ten cases do not make it to prosecution, most of them because police do not believe the evidence is sufficient to reach a conviction.”
The data in the article say:
- Non-Westerners make 14.3% of the population in Oslo.
- There were 999 rape reports last year.
- In 111 of the cases, the evidence was sufficient to hope for conviction and therefore lead to prosecution.
- 72 of the accused were of non-western ethnic origin.
What about the 888 cases which did not make it to court? Does the article say anything about the offenders’ ethnic background in those cases? – No.
So we have 999 rape reports, and we have 72 prosecuted criminals of non-western ethnic origin. In other words: Non-Westerners are charged with 7.2 % of the reported rapes.
I could go a bit further and say: While Non-Westerners make 14.3 % of the population in Oslo, they are charged with only 7.2 % of the reported rapes.
So far, we just do not have the facts allowing us to assume that Non-Westerners in Europe are more likely to commit rape than the locals. If you would like to know whether there are facts indicating a correlation between rape and ethnic origin, ask your government to collect the relevant data and run a proper study in this field.
December 18th, 2006 at 9:47 pm
What about the 888 cases which did not make it to court? Does the article say anything about the offenders’ ethnic background in those cases? – No.
So we have 999 rape reports, and we have 72 prosecuted criminals of non-western ethnic origin. In other words: Non-Westerners are charged with 7.2 % of the reported rapes.
Hate to interject and I’m not going to get substantially involved in this debate this time, but you are committing a big error in thinking. You are assuming something for which you have no evidence for: that the remaining cases are all westerners. What evidence do you have to back up that claim? I don’t think you have any. What evidence do you have that non-Westerners are selected for prosecution disproportionately? If they are not selected disproportionately but instead selected on a relatively random basis, then that indicates the proportion of rapists of non-Western origin is about 70%, not 7.2%.
December 19th, 2006 at 12:05 am
“You are assuming something for which you have no evidence for: that the remaining cases are all westerners.”
I do not assume such a thing. How could I? The article does not provide any information about the offenders who were not prosecuted.
What I do say is: According to the article, there were 999 rapes reported in Oslo last year, and 72 Non-Westerners were prosecuted for rape.
The data in the article also say that in 90 % of the reported rapes, we do not know anything about the offenders’ ethnic background.
It might be interesting to learn whether the victims or possible witnesses could tell the police about the criminals’ characteristics: appearance, language, etc. But I do not know. So I cannot even assume something. It would be nothing but a wild guess.
December 19th, 2006 at 9:25 am
E. I could quite easily go through the data myself and do it, but I do not have the time. My point of view on such studies is that there are always imperfections and often assumptions have to be made. That happens in all lines of business too, I work on multi-million pound deals and often we have to make assumptions due to lack of data, or inconsistent data. As I lived in Havering and also had many friends in those other boroughs and have been in them from time to time, I am aware of the makeup of them and would support the assumptions he used.
Criminals Affiliation, data not available…
Rape conviction, was that in the data sample he had?
Yes the boroughs are different in numbers, so what, he catered for it, he used percentage of population?
We are not talking about the South London Black drug ridden crime scene here, but young Muslim males. So he compared those London boroughs which had a typical makeup in that the indigenous population from those boroughs have actually moved to Havering. He was looking for the similarity of East London. And does the UK do a census every year? Nope!!!
I have seen this reaction in business so many times, because you have to make an assumption at some point then you discard it, life is not perfect is it.
As for the Norwegian data we actually have cases where they are possibly convicting the rapists and 65% of those which could result in conviction are from an ethnic minority and knowing Oslo, I have been there too, it is mainly Muslim. I had about 5% of the population of Oslo as being Muslims.
The police will not release such data as it would not be Politically correct, only confirmed facts.
And by the way, a Danish contacts best friends wife who is Swedish was gang raped by 5 young Muslims in Sweden. It was not 5 Swedes. The assault was very well organized, almost as if they had done this a number of times, again an assumption but there you go.
In Britain the other day in Manchester a Muslim male in his mid-20’s with shaven head and large bushy beard raped a 13 year old girl coming back from the local garage having brought some sweets. Nice wasn’t it?
And as a so called immoral Westerner I have never seen a gang of youths grabbing women in the street like that incident in Cairo and I lived in some rough areas at times.
December 19th, 2006 at 10:31 am
“And as a so called immoral Westerner I have never seen a gang of youths grabbing women in the street like that incident in Cairo and I lived in some rough areas at times.”
It’s rare, but it happens on occasion. Remember the Puerto Rican parade in New York a few years back? There were hundreds of men shouting, groping, rending clothing, and raping dozens of women. I recall video footage of a female British tourist who was stripped naked, sexually assaulted, and doused with beer by the crowd. It was chilling to see her slowly walking away from the mob with her rescuers, completely naked and dripping wet with her head down in shame and fear, while the men kept jeering and throwing drinks at her.
December 19th, 2006 at 11:16 am
The data in the article also say that in 90 % of the reported rapes, we do not know anything about the offenders’ ethnic background.
Again, in order to presume that the rape rate is not largely a function of the non-Western population given what data we do have, you would have to believe those 90% of reported but not prosecuted rapes are very different statistically from those that were actually prosecuted.
In order for that to be the case, you would have to presume that Muslim suspects are being singled out for prosecution (in a massive way by a number of prosecutors) for some reason. You would have to presume that the sample is not representative. Given an absence of evidence for that, I think we can safely assume that the ethnicities of those prosecuted are a roughly reasonable sample of all rape cases. If that is the case, Muslim immigrants are very disproportionately represented in the rape statistics.
A statistic doesn’t require that we have access to the entire population (technically a result derived from an entire population as opposed to a sample isn’t even a statistic, it is a census). A statistic only requires a reasonable sample. If you don’t believe the sample is being drawn reasonably then you need to make a case for it. Simply claiming that we don’t know everything, haven’t talked to everyone, or are missing data for a non-sampled group doesn’t constitute a statistical argument in the absence of reasons to believe it affects the chosen sample.
As I see it, we have no reason to presume that Muslims are being singled out for prosecution. We have no grounds for believing that any variance between the actual rape rate and the prosecuted rape rate doesn’t favor Muslims as opposed to inflating their involvement in rapes. Furthermore, I would also suspect that rapes where the victim is Muslim are likely to be underreported. I would suspect that the large majority of such rapes where the victim is Muslim involve a Muslim perp also (given the fact that Muslim women are more likely to keep to their own communities than the men are). Thus 65-70% may be too low of an estimate.
December 19th, 2006 at 11:34 am
Kurt, then I stand corrected, that was as bad and as sad as the incident in Cairo.
What is without doubt however is that preventing the two sexes to mix naturally causes a lot of pent up frustration to explode.
Which is rather different to the drunken excesses you describe, more akin to the South London sexual attacks I would think.
One is a drink crazed mob, the other is a deliberate policy within a religion to create a suitable warrior material, both are wrong.
December 19th, 2006 at 7:28 pm
Most of these posters just sit here and BASH Egypt….We need to also realize that Egypt has a very good side. And instead of Bashing Egypt, comeup with suggestions on what WE can do to help!!
December 19th, 2006 at 8:12 pm
@Modern Pharaoh, I don’t want to bash Egypt. Really. I’m a Baha’i living in the US. But this situation worries me. My mom’s father was arrested in Iran in 1983 and died in prison. Why was he arrested? Because he was a Baha’i. I’m glad I didn’t grow up in Iran, unfortunately. I have a better sense of the world having grown up in Argentina and the US. Even though this country has many glaring flaws, we have personal freedoms and basic human rights. Just when is it right to make a citizen of your country automatically illegal just based on their religion? You must help put a stop to this or it will get out of hand. Now, everyone in Egypt who is not Muslim or Christian is an illegal. No matter that they are just as Egyptian as you. God will help you if you take a step.
As for some earlier comments about suggesting the Baha’is in Egypt move to Haifa. Actually, that’s not possible. First off, the Baha’i gardens, holy places and administrative buildings there form part of our pilgrimage. For all of our Baha’is in the middle east, they are asked not to go to Israel because of the current tensions between everyone. Second, there actually is no official Baha’i community in Haifa. There are only volunteers working and serving at the gardens, holy places and buildings. Last I heard there are about 1000 people there. They are there for at least 18 months at a time and come from everywhere else in the world except the middle east. So, not only can the Egyptian Baha’is not move to Haifa, they can’t even make their pilgrimage there due to the current situation. Sad, just sad. I just had the privilege to go in April this year and it was truly peaceful. All around Haifa and Akko there are tensions, but that region for some reason just felt like it was outside of all danger and commotion. Then Lebanon happened in July. I couldn’t believe it.
By the way, sandmonkey, I thank you for sharing these stories. I’m glad Baha’is have friends there.
December 19th, 2006 at 10:11 pm
Most of these posters just sit here and BASH Egypt….We need to also realize that Egypt has a very good side. And instead of Bashing Egypt, comeup with suggestions on what WE can do to help!!
I’ve no interest in bashing Egypt, but face it- where in the US the Civil Rights Movement made slow but constant progress, Egypt seems to be moving backwards in this regard. Not only has a court instituted relgious discrimination as a matter of law, but it’s apparently supported by the majority of the population.
When faced with popular opinion moving towards less tolerance and the government towards fewer freedoms, change would require both the populace and the government to completely reverse course. Unfortunately, this seems to happen in the Middle East when looking down the barrel of a gun.
I’m afraid I only see one of three things happening in Egypt, and none are good:
1. The status quo is maintained through government restrictions on the MB and/or other hard-liner political parties.
2. Popular support for the hard-liners grows too strong to ignore and elections lead to Egypt becoming a Sunni version of Iran.
3. An Egyptian version of King Abdullah- an authoritarian who will restrict civil rights and use force to stomp on extremists.
Of course this is a largely uninformed opinion, so I could be completely wrong- I’ve never been within about 5000 miles of Egypt. I just don’t see Egypt turning around and becoming a secular, free, tolerant country in the next 20 years any more than I expect the US to revert to having “whites only” restrooms.
December 19th, 2006 at 11:05 pm
Modern Pharaoh,
I could name many including:
1) Support measures to separate mosque and state. That includes supporting the right of an individual to choose his or her own religion. Religion should not be carried on identification cards at all.
2) Work for separation of branches of government. Most especially, clearly separate your judicial and executive branches: Mubarak needs to stay far away from telling judges what to do unless he has substantial legislative support. Those legislators need to be elected, not picked by Mubarak. Of course, that means working to end the dictatorship.
3) Move away from both from Islamism and pan-Arabism towards a healthy and proud veneration of Egypt as Egypt, not as another Islamic Republic or as just another Arab state. The Arab world could use a dose of non-pan-Arab nationalism.
4) Ban cousin marriage. Among other ills, cousin marriage encourages tribalism and “familialism.” The modern western-style state is based upon primary loyalty being invested in the nation, not in primary loyalty to lesser entities like extended families or tribes.
5) Increase literacy. Lack of democracy and illiteracy often go hand-and-hand.
6) Democracy is hard work. If you want democracy, better learn from the past. Read the works of Tom Paine, James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, James Wilson, and Alexander Hamilton. Try out Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and Rousseau also. Check out Alexis de Tocqueville. Even the leaders of long-established democracies would do well to get to know the writings of these individuals. Some of these individuals’ works are available at Project Gutenberg free for download:
http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page
Those are a few for starters. Until there is a significant movement in the country that demands both a government committed to secularism (leaving religion to individuals not to the state) and democracy, Egypt cannot seriously advance.
December 19th, 2006 at 11:14 pm
Hi tommy, you said:
“In order for that to be the case, you would have to presume that Muslim suspects are being singled out for prosecution (in a massive way by a number of prosecutors) for some reason.”
No, I would not. It is not about single out (singling out? sorry, English is not my mother tongue). It is all about the offender’s chances to get caught. If he does not get caught, the police statistics cannot say anything about him. That is the case in 90% of the reported rapes.
Now whose changes to get caught might be bigger in a “Western” country: the local’s or the Non-Westerner’s? (The article does not mention religious affiliations, but western and nonwestern ethnic origins.)
I do not think that Non-Westerners get singled out. But I do guess that they might stand out in a Western society and therefore might have the higher chances to get caught and prosecuted. I think that this is not implausible. But I cannot be sure, because I cannot know about the offenders who do not show up in police statistics. That is why I would find it interesting to learn whether the victims could tell the police anything about the offender.
December 20th, 2006 at 12:53 am
Hi Daffersd, you said:
“My point of view on such studies is that there are always imperfections and often assumptions have to be made. That happens in all lines of business too, I work on multi-million pound deals and often we have to make assumptions due to lack of data, or inconsistent data.”
I hope the people who provide you with the data do a better job than Mr Whatwashisname did
“Criminals Affiliation, data not available…
Rape conviction, was that in the data sample he had?”
No, it was not. That is why they do not allow the assumptions he made.
“Yes the boroughs are different in numbers, so what, he catered for it, he used percentage of population?”
Please do check. So far as I remember, he used the report numbers, not the report rates (= reports per 10′000 (or 100′000) inhabitants. As the numbers of inhabitans vary widely, you have to calculate the rates in order to compare the reports.
“So he compared those London boroughs which had a typical makeup in that the indigenous population from those boroughs have actually moved to Havering. He was looking for the similarity of East London. And does the UK do a census every year? Nope!!!”
That is exactly what I mean. Given that there were changes in population compositions, and given that the percentages of religious affiliations was available only for one year: what sense does it make to “calculate” the report numbers of several years against the Muslim percentage of one single year? None, I dare say.
“I have seen this reaction in business so many times, because you have to make an assumption at some point then you discard it, life is not perfect is it.”
Well, that method might be O.K. for business, but it does not have anything to do with a proper study. The chances are high that mere assumptions will put you off the scent. Especially, if you use them to filter out the data which do not backup your hypothesis.
But as I said above: You can easily check it yourself. It does not take a lot of time, as the sources the gentleman used for his work are available for download in Excel sheets. It will be enough to do so for the FY with the data for religious affiliation.
“And by the way, a Danish contacts best friends wife who is Swedish was gang raped by 5 young Muslims in Sweden. It was not 5 Swedes. The assault was very well organized, almost as if they had done this a number of times, again an assumption but there you go.”
I hope they were sent to jail for the rest of their lives. (Probably they were not, which is a disgrace.) According to me, there are no excuses for rapists, neither alcohol, nor bad childhood, nor youth, nor cultural background, nor ethnicity, nor religious affiliation. No second chance for rapists. But please do not let us generalise unduly. Else I would have to conclude that it has always been the white Christians European girls have to be afraid of, just because I was raped by one, and I do know two ladies who were gang-raped many years ago by white upper-class Catholics (who were never prosecuted, by the way, because, you know, “you are not going to ruin your life, those youngsters’ life and that of their families, are you. Just think about your reputation.”)
December 20th, 2006 at 2:03 am
“it does not have anything to do with a proper study.”
I don’t recall the gentleman ever claiming it was a proper study.
December 20th, 2006 at 2:41 am
It is all about the offender’s chances to get caught. If he does not get caught, the police statistics cannot say anything about him. That is the case in 90% of the reported rapes.
If that is the case then you would have to presume that police are only catching non-Westerners.
Now whose changes to get caught might be bigger in a “Western” country: the local’s or the Non-Westerner’s?
In towns with substantial Muslim populations, like Malmo, Sweden, it probably makes little difference. In fact, from what I understand, Malmo, with its high Muslim immigrant population, is particularly notorious for having a high incidence of rape.
December 20th, 2006 at 2:45 am
Malmo, Sweden is discussed at Free Republic. Malmo has the greatest percentage of Muslims in Scandinavia. They also have 5-6 times the incidence of rape of Copenhagen despite being a smaller city according to the piece:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1367676/posts
December 20th, 2006 at 10:30 pm
“If that is the case then you would have to presume that police are only catching non-Westerners.”
Would you mind to tell me why?
“In towns with substantial Muslim populations, like Malmo, Sweden, it probably makes little difference. In fact, from what I understand, Malmo, with its high Muslim immigrant population, is particularly notorious for having a high incidence of rape.”
How big should that Muslim population be to show such an influence?
According to http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/irf/2006/71410.htm , Malmo has about 9.1 million inhabitants, and the Muslim community said there were about 350′000 Muslims living in Malmo. Would make about 3.8%?
I do not know about the incidence of rape in Malmo. How high would you expect it to be? The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention has a website: http://www.bra.se/extra/pod/?module_instance=11 Crime statistics can be found in the side bar.
What I do know is that crime report rates in European cities have risen significantly. According to criminologists, there are many factors contributing to that phenomenon. One of them is actual increase, another one is the increasing tendency to report crimes. Both seem to be crucial when it comes to rape. The increasing tendency to report shows up in surveys: Most of the elderly women reporting to have been raped in their youth say that they did not dare to go to the police, because they feared stigmatisation. Whereas the younger generations of women seem to be more likely to report rape.
Anyway: what would really trouble me if I would live in Norway is the low prosecution rate for reported rape. According to the article in Afterposten, it is only 10%.
December 20th, 2006 at 10:41 pm
@tommy: Sorry, have not seen your post #55 before. As it is late now, I will read the article you linked tomorrow.
December 20th, 2006 at 10:43 pm
@Jason: That is correct. It was Daffersd who called the gentleman’s work a study.
December 21st, 2006 at 6:29 pm
I wonder how Egyptian authorities would react if Israel offered sanctuary to Egyptian Baha’is in the Baha’i centre in Haifa..
December 21st, 2006 at 11:36 pm
@tommy: My excuses for the numbers I posted about Malmo. Of course, the information at http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/irf/2006/71410.htm are for the country, not for the city. I did not realise before asking a Swedish colleague whether he knew where to get the civic crime statistics. My mistake made me blush to a degree that I could have worked as a red traffic light.
E., who will never again write a post while occupied with other things.