That Train won’t be late

The people who read me regularly and know me personally know that I am a believer that the next war in the middle-east won't be fought between the arabs and the jews, but rather between the Sunnis and the Shia. Iran seems to be overstepping its influence in the region, with meddeling in Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain, which is freaking Saudi and the other sunni gulf states out, and for some reason Egypt's as well. It makes sense that the gulf states would want Mubarak to join the effort, since Egypt is the only country in the region wih population to equal Iran's and a military in par with it (What is Egypt now if not a big ,yet not very efficient, military structure?). The Egyptian government (i.e. Mubarak), for its part, has been very big on persecuting the Shia in Egypt. The regime itself has been very annoyed by the rising popularity of Ahmeddinjad and Hassan Nasrallah amonsgt the egyptian people, who like them for their "defiance against the zionist imperialist west", which is why Egypt now is "pursuing its own nuclear program" in order to score cheap points with the egyptian public. That aside, something very interesting has been going on in Egypt recently: A very clandestine anti-Shia, anti-Iran campaign in the egyptian media.

I am not really sure who is behind it, whether it is the government, the sunni wahabi islamists forces, or both working together, but it is bearing fruit. Between state sponserd tabloids like Rose al Yousef writing story after story of Iran's and the Shia's rsising influence in the region, to popular islamic televangelist Khlaed Al Gindy going on the egptian state-sponserd TV show "el beit beitak" or on the Privately owned Orbit's "Cairo Today" attacking the shia and calling them infidels and more dangerous than the zionists, to that lawyer who took over the Podium at the meeting of "the nationalistic forces summit to oppose Saddam's execution" who gave the now infamous speech on how with Saddam's death we egyptians should become very weary of Iran since it is the one who pushed for his execution, and that the sunni arab world is now facing a Zionist american Iranian conspiracy that aims to tear apart the middle-east. Redicilous, yes, but it seems to be working. Public sentiments regarding the shia have been changing ever since Sadam's execution, with more people being vocally anti-Shia and the discussions taking place in egyptian private Universities, if they are any indication, seem to be supporting this premise. It's hard to count how many times I've heard people at the AUC or the MSA speaking about how big giant infidels the Shia are and how they have always worked against Islam from the begining, and now, a friend of mine who goes to MIU, was telling me yesterday how she had to face like an angry group of her friends (all technically better educated and well traveld) who were telling her that 1) The Kurds are Shia and 2) All Shia are infidels and 3) They are worse and more dangerous than the zionists as far as Egypt is concerned. The future of Egypt, the fruit of egyptian private education. I weep for the future of this country. Anyway..

So yeah, all of them are seperate incidents, but together they do paint a very interesting picture: The egyptian people are being psychologically prepared for a future sunni-shia conflict with the Shia being the villians, and they are falling for it. If this breaches its inevitable conclusion, with Al Awqaf-hired Imams starting to spread that line throughout Egypt's mosques, it won't be long until you found an Egyptian populace that is very anti-Iran, and subsequently could become anti Hezbollah and Hamas, which would give the government public support in any political or military future action it may feel to undertake. It's frightening, it's pre-planned and it's happening as we speak.

Is it just me, or does the future of this region seem more and more threathening with every passing day?

Comments

  1. Muslims kill anyone that disagrees on laws. That’s what the paedophile prophet commanded … you are not happy about this … are you not a muslim ?

    Do you still want to be a muslim ?

    Soon we will have muslims themselves starting to kill veiled women because it is against some or other command in the “holy book”.

  2. “won’t be long until you found an Egyptian populace that is very anti-Iran, and subsequently could become anti Hezbollah and Hamas”

    Why anti-Hamas? Hamas is sunni and part of the Ikhwen l-Muslimeen.

  3. Zionist american Iranian conspiracy

    That’s an alliance of very strange bedfellows.

    Seriously, I’ll bet the Israelis are relieved the focus is off them and on the Shiites.

  4. This is one of a multitude of reasons why politics and religon should never share the same bed. It is the looming major structural flaw in the idea of an Islamic caliphate. Let’s all sit back and watch the fireworks. It should be interesting to see them destrot one another and weaken the entire region, again.

  5. Allah has forsaken the Muslims. It was clear from the day that Mohammed spoke of the daughters of the one true God that the voice of Shaitain had spoke into his ear. Did not Shaitain speak into the ear of Isa, promising him kingdoms and lands?

    Isa refused, and today, his followers rule the Earth with justice. Mohammed.. did he refuse? No. And his followers conquered the lands and killed and pillaged all of the beauty of others, and today they are as worthless as dirt.

    Now the followers of Mohammed must come to account. Will they make the right choice and leave the clutches of Shaitain? Or will they stay and reap the hell he wroth on them?

  6. Yes, a Shia-Sunni confrontation seems to be at hand. But I reckon it’s realpolitik more than religion: there is a kind of an alliance between many of the Sunni states, since they share interests, language, culture, etc. Iran has very different interests and is basically led by a bunch of phychopaths who’d happily munch on a puppy sandwich if it was halal.

    Moreover, Iran desperately needs to expand if it wants to forestall its social and demographic collapse. Every Iranian action abroad speaks of impending invasion – Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan. It is reasonable to assume that the countries wishing to preserve the status quo (Arab states, in this case) would act to counter Iranian pre-invasion activities. And the best way to go about that in the Arab world is, alas, religion and insane conspiracy theories.

    It would seem that the Arabs are digging themselves ever deeper into shit with assorted paranoia-mongering. Once people accept the notion that other Muslims are enemy, there’s going to be more internal trouble than what the tyrants can contain: every sect against every other sect, and a collapse of the Umma notion in the Arab world.

    I, for one, am watching this develop with great fascination. It’s history unfolding in front of my very eyes.

  7. Michael H. says:

    Tom, Abu Kufr,

    I have strong reservations about Islam myself, as I cannot quite bring myself to believe that the troubles that plague the Islamic world, and that emanate from there to plague others, are entirely unrelated to the Islamic religion.

    Having said this, I find the tone and tenor of your comments in this thread not only extremely impolite, but reprehensible. Our host Sandmonkey has made it clear time and again — and this in the context of his sometimes difficult Egyptian home environment — that he firmly stands for freedom and does not shy from away from forcefully criticizing his communities of origin. Often his heart must bleed in doing so, but he consistently favors truth and freedom over community.

    Sandmonkey really should be the last person on whom to vicariously take out, your frustrations with Islam. It is cheap and reprehensible. Do it in the face of some bigoted Muslim thugs, but not here where it amounts to nothing but an unsavory and gratuitous personal assault.

  8. “Zionist american Iranian conspiracy ”

    Fantastic! You’d need one hell of an imagination to actually believe such a thing possible, paricularly in these times…. :)
    From my safe (?) vantage point here in northern europe, the middle east seems to be a distant, utterly different dimension in constant conflict, and it doesn’t seem to make much difference who’s fighting who. As The Racoon said, it’s history in the making and I’m gonna miss as little as possible… Fascinating!!!

  9. It’s not hard to foretell the general trend of events coming for the ME. Psychologically muslims look to be about where the Catholics were in the 1400s through the 1600s. Murder between Catholics and Protestants was widewpread and sometimes wholesale throughout Europe. The hatred still lingers in some camps. The schism of Shia and Sunni looks just about identical to me. If the muslim could just grow up and accept the reality of the times we live in. But no. They hate the modern world and would rather die in religious war. You moderates here on this board look to be a small faction indeed and not growing. I’d be forming mutal defense pacts and planning for the wars to come if I were you.

  10. “Zionist american Iranian conspiracy”

    Now the Iranians are Zionists? Only in APU eh

  11. “Zionist american Iranian conspiracy ”

    Fantastic! You’d need one hell of an imagination to actually believe such a thing possible, paricularly in these times….

    It is not impossible to believe if you do not have education and access to other sources to information but your local imam.
    When you are working hard, yet still live in poverty and nothing is coming your way ever. When there is no hope…
    In conditions like this people can be easily manipulated by those whom they fear and respect.

    So, sad.

  12. That’s an alliance of very strange bedfellows.

    Yea…but one that actually operated (very briefly) in the past as part of the US negotiations to get the embassy hostages released, so they’ll be able to point to that incident to validate the theory.

    Some aren’t old enough to remember how that went down, bu I am. There was a 3-way deal between the US, Israel and Iran.

    The US couldn’t be seen dealing directly with Iran (who wanted various spare parts and such for their US made gear).

    Israel had such spare parts and shipped them to Iran.

    We got our hostages back.

  13. Cut snake says:

    Well said Mike @ 7

    This has the smell of conspiracy about it.
    Personally, if I can choose between conspiracy and giant fuck-up, I choose the latter anytime :)

  14. The opposite is taking place in Syria. The Shia revival is being celebrated and Iran’s ascendency as a regional power amplified and justified as the only answer to US hegemony and Israeli occupation. The regime has had strong links with Iran since before the Islamic Revolution when Ayatollah Khomeni was still in exile and spent sometime in Damsacus.

    If you take a dispassionate view of all of this, the Sunni Arabs only have themselves to blame. Had they treated the Shia on equal terms since the fall of the Ottoman Empire Iran would not have been able to creep into our region through Hizbollah, the Assads in Syria and Al Sadrs in Iraq or develop imperial ambitions. As the say, you harvest what you sow.

  15. Dawnfire82 says:

    PA: That wasn’t for the Iran hostages. The Iran-Contra scandal happened during Reagan’s 2nd(?) term, not Carter’s term.

    And this kind of shit is always happening in the Middle East, whether Lebanons or Iraq or Yemen. But now it involves Egypt. *shrugs*

  16. I was sort of worried about this sort of thing a few weeks ago. The present situation does look like it could explode into an arab version of WW1, but it probably won’t. Arab countries and Iran, for the most part, do not seem to have their shit together. Who has an army that they could deploy for a long period of time? Where will the fighting (not counting Baghdad) be if everyone has an “at home” army? It’s possible that there will be ethnic/religous cleansing (counting baghdad), but probably not a major war.

    btw, I second comment 7. You guys should go back to LGF with that b.s.

  17. tedders,

    This is one of a multitude of reasons why politics and religon should never share the same bed.

    I don’t think there are a multitude of reasons. I think there is only one reason. Worldly power corrupts spiritual leaders. And then they aren’t spiritual leaders, anymore. They are just corrupt politicians who use their religious authority as a tool to control the masses.

    It is the looming major structural flaw in the idea of an Islamic caliphate. Let’s all sit back and watch the fireworks. It should be interesting to see them destrot one another and weaken the entire region, again.

    I don’t agree. For one thing, the region is already weak. The ME needs structure, and rule of law. Not chaos. Anarchy is the perfect breeding ground for terrorism. Unless you want more terrorism, you should not be cheering on a Shia/Sunni conflict. Such a conflict will be eventually resolved, and the ME will be in a worse state than ever, when it is.

    Purple Avenger,

    Some aren’t old enough to remember how that went down, bu I am. There was a 3-way deal between the US, Israel and Iran.

    A 5 way deal then. Including Hezbollah and the Nicaraguan Contras.

    The US couldn’t be seen dealing directly with Iran (who wanted various spare parts and such for their US made gear).

    The US shouldn’t have been dealing with Iran at all.

    Israel had such spare parts and shipped them to Iran.

    That isn’t what actually went down. The US shipped the weapons to Israel, and Israel shipped them to Iran.

    We got our hostages back.

    The ones who weren’t dead, you mean? After how many years of captivity?

    Unacceptable.

    Hey, you folks who were arguing about the importance of the Hariri investigation in the other thread! I have some questions!

    When are there going to be some investigations into who was responsible for the 1979 hostage crisis in Iran, the Hostages in Lebanon, the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing, the 3 times the US embassy in Lebanon was bombed in the 1980s, the numerous plane hijackings, the bombing of a military housing complex in Saudi Arabia, etc? That’s all on Hezbollah/Syria/Iran too.

    It’s been a long time. When will justice be done?

  18. …”Is it just me, or does the future of this region seem more and more threathening with every passing day? “…

    Hasn’t the region been experiencing this sort of thing for the past thousand or so years? It is time to quit the barbary and enter the 21st century peacefully. As long as you keep trying to change others, esp. by force, it is going to remain threatening.

  19. Soldier's Dad says:

    Dawnfire82 Says:

    “that wasn’t the hostage crisis”

    Actually, the Algiers Accords, which resulted in the release of the American Hostages held in Iran call for the “unfreezing” of various “Iranian Assets” held by the US Government.

    Prior to the Hostage Crisis, Iran purchased many things from the US, weapons included. Would weapons purchased by Iran, but not yet delivered be considered “Iranian Assets” subject to the Algiers Accords?

    Ask Jimmy Carter….I’m sure you will get a lot of mumbling about agreeing to release various “Iranian Assets”.

  20. Given the UN’s pathetic attampts to halt the development of nuclear weapons in N Korea and now Iran, how long will it be before Egypt embarks upon its own nuclear program, if it hasn’t already started.

  21. InfidelDane says:

    “a Zionist american Iranian conspiracy that aims to tear apart the middle-east”
    Does that mean that Denmark is now 4th on the evil list ?

    Damn, SM! you’re good when you rant.

  22. BrooklynJon says:

    “btw, I second comment 7. You guys should go back to LGF with that b.s. ”

    I agree. Only I’m not so sure that stuff belongs in LGF either. If you don’t like Islam, don’t be a Muslim. It’s really that simple.

  23. What Michael H (#7) said. SaM ain’t the person and ain’t the Muslim at which to bitch.

    If you seriously have the need for grief, go on over to the forums at http://mahjoob.com/en/forums/index.php and root around to vent at the posters who incorporate little animated spinny-victory hands underneath images of Osama bin Laden. You’re needed THERE. Not here.

  24. Yeah, it’s getting juicy alright…

    absurd thought -
    God of the Universe likes
    Sunni more than Shia
    .

  25. Somehow the Jews will end up being for the Shia (if you’re sunni) and for the Sunnis (if you’re shia).

    But it’s v, v, V true that the Zionists are not the big threat in that region — or in the world. The big scape goat, yes, but not a threat.

  26. it seems that since israel failed to be an effective enemy (following HA “divine victory”), a new great-enemy was needed, hence the anti-shia propaganda. *smacks forehead*.

    can we all have boring politics?

  27. Screwed up governments need an enemy to divert the citizen’s attention from their screwed up government. If there is no real enemy, invent one. If the citizens become accustomed to the lies about the old imagined enemy, invent a new one.

  28. Richard – the Iranian problem is very, very real. Teheran desperately needs to become a Middle-Eastern superpower in order to delay its imminent social and demographic collapse.

    The Arab states need to prevent this, as Iranian hegemony will not sit well with them.

    It’s a pretty simple situation. Note that the Shia-Sunni troubles correspond exactly to rising Iranian belligerence.

  29. For what it’s worth- the Sunni/ Shiaa schism is an historical legacy. I attended a talk by a Sunni Sheikh who said that, back in the day when the Shiaas had separated from the main throng, they made a pact with the Jews to wipe out the Sunnis and that this was now coming to fruition. He said that the Lebanon/ Israel war was devised by Hezbollah in cahoots with Irael to get mass Sunni support for Shiaa- ie- if Shiaa appeared to be the only ones with the balls to stand up to Israel, more and more Sunnis would turn to Shiaaism.
    Pretty screwed hey?

    The problem with Islam today is that Muslims follow Hadith and Sunnah and seem to have forgotten Koran. Koran makes no mention of divisions or different schools of Islam. Everytime I read something by a Muslim or in a Muslim publication- it is quoting Hadith- what about Koran? I think that we have put Hadith before Koran. Hadith is heresay written after the death of the Prophet (pbuh). I do not follow heresay.

  30. We are at war with zionists. We have always been at -

    *reads note*

    – war with Sh’ia. I repeat, we are at war with Sh’ia and have always been so.

  31. “‘The jihad now is against the Shias, not the Americans’”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1989397,00.html

  32. Interesting article, Joshu.

    Then he said: “I am trying to talk to the Americans. I want to give them assurances that no one will attack them in our area if they stop the Shia militias from coming.”

    The US must not get caught in that trap. A lot of the Iraqi bloggers who have been supportive of the insurgency (like Riverbend) have been making noises about how important it is for the US to do something about the Shia for about a year now. The very last thing the US should do is become a participant in the civil war that the Sunni started. Let them finish it.

  33. completely agree with Craig

  34. OK. I’m simplifying this to see if I get it.
    “Next war won’t be arabs and jews; Sunnis and the Shia. Iran meddeling in Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain. Freaking Saudi and other sunni gulf states; want Egypt in effort. Egyptian gov persecuting Shia in Egypt; annoyed by Aj & Nsrah. Clandestine anti-Shia, anti-Iran campaign. Attacking shia calling infidels more dangerous than zionists. With Saddam’s death egyptians weary of Iran-who pushed for execution. Sunni arab world is now facing a Zionist american Iranian conspiracy that aims to tear apart the middle-east. Big giant infidels Shia work against Islam. 1) The Kurds are Shia 2) All Shia infidels 3) Worse more dangerous than zionists as far as Egypt is concerned….”

    Ya know what? It’s late here. I care and am concerned thus am compelled to spill the secret now. This planet as we know is actuality a big dirty dust bunny sitting in the navel of a green 3-headed alien floating around the galaxy. “Heh geezer-head (talking to his alien friend).” “Check out the microbes on this dust bunny in my navel. This set of microbes thinks Shias are bad. This set thinks Americans are fools. This set thinks Sunis are the enemy. And those two sets think the Jews should die. What you think about these microbes thinking they can even think?” And the two aliens laugh and laugh. The friend of OUR host alien says, “You know what Joe? Go take a shower. That dust bunny in your navel really stinks.” And the stink is all of us not evolving into the humans we’re meant to be, just us fermenting like some weird helpless yeast. Feed this to the propaganda machine…it might ersatz a couple nano-seconds. nite nite zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  35. #34, Joshu

    I read last week that the jihad is against France, US, algerian collaborators to western investments, coming from GIA new reconstructed, who take their inspiration in Ben Laden program

  36. Philip I Says:”The opposite is taking place in Syria. The Shia revival is being celebrated and Iran’s ascendency as a regional power amplified and justified as the only answer to US hegemony and Israeli occupation. The regime has had strong links with Iran since before the Islamic Revolution when Ayatollah Khomeni was still in exile and spent sometime in Damsacus.”

    Khomeini did not spend time in Damascus but in Iraq and Turkey and then Paris. The Syrian Baath party, like most secular Arab parties, is a party of minorities. In this case Alawis who are not really Muslims in any meaningful sense, but are Shia if they are anything – and got Musa al-Sadr in Lebanon to recognise them as such. For which they are grateful.

  37. then Paris.

    I thought you could manage a better precision,
    he was not in Paris but in a villa near St Cyr l’Ecole in the Yvelines, a north-ouest department of Paris, about 100km from the capital :P

  38. Craig;

    I agree. I think the thing to do is to let this conflict burn itself out. There’s not much else we can do anyway. There will come a point where warring parties and their supporters will get tired of the killing and come to terms.

  39. Excellent post ya monkey!

  40. SoCalJustice says:

    I, for one, salute our new Zionist American Iranian overlords.

    Hassankel Nassrallahwictz and Mahmoudstein Ben-Amhmadinejadberg are clearly the most fiendish Zionists yet!

    Um, SM, will you please move back to America?

    Cheers.

  41. Once Iran gets nukes,Arab countries will make like Chavez and smooch with the mullahs. Iran is cobbling together a fascist bloc to counter U.S./western influence. Russia,China and France will certainly encourage them.

  42. This site is nothing but zionist bs. What you fail to mention is that before the US and zionist led invasion of Iraq, Sunni and Shia lived in peace. Is it a coincidence that everything went to hell when the US invaded? It’s not.

    You folks will never be happy. You love war and nothing more. If you really loved the US, you’d wake up and realize that zionists took control of Congress and the Bush regime.

    The best thing for the middle east is a powerful Iran.

  43. SoCalJustice says:

    What you fail to mention is that before the US and zionist led invasion of Iraq, Sunni and Shia lived in peace.

    (Not that I should respond to you, but) that’s not what the Shia will tell you.

    They will tell you that they were brutalized, arrested, murdered and viciously oppressed.

    But why would you believe them?

    And by the way, I was – and am – against the war. I just don’t think it’s at all fair to say that the Shia were living “in peace” with the Sunnis. They certainly would never say that.

  44. Naomi – LOL! Long live the stinky dust bunny! :)

    JC – rrrrriiiiight… it’s ‘em Elders and Illuminati again, innit? With the aid of evil aliens.

  45. nice ex-Jewish Boy says:

    Zionist American Iranian babes are HOT!

  46. “Zionist American Iranian conspiracy “???

    Now that’s a brain-bender! Let’s see…. Ahmedinejad regularly calls for the destruction of Israel, proudly proclaims his undying hatred for the US, actively supported Hezbollah in invading Israel to kill/kidnap soldiers, is starting to support Hamas to make trouble for Israel, and has been supporting both the Iraqi Shia & Sunni death squads just so they’ll kill American & British soldiers. Yet somehow this is all just a ploy so the dastardly Yankees and Jews can connive with the Shias to slaughter the Sunnis? What exactly would either the U.S. or Israel get out of siding with the Iranian Shia in some ancient religous blood feud?

    You’ve got a great point that people getting all their information from their local imam are far more susceptible to crazy, illogical, conspiracy theories, but this seems a bit much. Isn’t Ahmadinejad getting great play in all the Arab media for his threats against the West and Israel? I think he’s a scary dude, but I genuinely appreciate his passion and willingness to speak his mind. I believe he really means what he says when he declares Iran is the enemy of the U.S. and Israel. The ordinary Iranian citizens may not be our enemies, but I sure think their government has made its intentions clear. Don’t the residents of the Middle East think Ahmadinejad is serious in his beliefs?

  47. Zionist American Iranian conspiracy LOL

    Jill

    One of the things Ahmadinejad passionately promised was improving Iranian economy and getting rid of corruption.
    For the last year or so he was travelling all across Iran receiving letters from Iranians, talking of jobs and being feted by poor villagers.
    He did not improve economy.
    Rice, potato,tomatoes, egplants and fruit prices rose dramatically during the last couple of weeks. The cooking oil prices rose and there are gas shortages. There are cheap chinese goods on the market and the domestic producers can not compete. And the corruption is as bad as it was before he took power.
    He and his buddy Mesbah Yazdi may passionately talk about destroying the west and about the coming of 12 immam. But I think many Iranians would prefer to pay less for food and to get well paid jobs.

  48. I think it will be more like a conintued deterioration…like AIDS…rather than a sudden heart attack.

    Either way…I don’t see an end to a lot of suffering.

  49. BrooklynJon says:

    JC,

    I believe you are not correct on the facts. The Shia were brutally repressed under Saddam’s Suni-led regime. They revolted after Gulf War I, only to be put down again when the Coalition abandoned them. And all this before the Zionists took over the GWB administration. Unless you want to say that we also controlled James “F*** the Jews” Baker.

    As far as your suggestion that what the ME needs is a nuclear Iran, hopefully we will never know.

    bj

  50. On topic…

    The Liberal Cleric of the Dahiyeh

    http://www.michaeltotten.com/

  51. The US shipped the weapons to Israel, and Israel shipped them to Iran.

    Then Israel had the parts. Of course they got’em from us. They weren’t going to get’em from the Soviets.

    The utility of negotiating this way is debatable.

    My point is that it happened (does anyone debate this?) and there is precedent for such things. Its an example the conspiracy crowd can hang their hats onto (does anyone debate this?)

  52. Purple Avenger,

    It did happen. And people went to jail over it. And Reagan was nearly impeached over it. Not much for a conspiracy theorist to hang their hat on.

  53. What'sWrongWithStoriesOnLGF says:

    What is you all’s opinions about littlegreenfootballs?

    WHy is there anti-LGF hate in these comments?

    I thought they both had the same goals, exposing moronic hypocrsiy by “WE HAVE TOO MUCH POWER” politico-religious leaders in the Middle East?

    Am i wrong???

  54. #55, I don’t like LGF, myself. Haven’t read it enough to really know what it is about it that bothers me, but something about it gets under my skin.

  55. LGF & KOS are too american and partisan to be taken seriously.

  56. wow, I mean there is a lot of defaming comments from speaking out of their arses! Shiiiii…t don’t these people got lives, apparently not!

  57. BrooklynJon says:

    Too American to be taken seriously? What exactly does that mean?

    Kos is clearly very partisan. So much so, that it often becomes anti-American. LGF is not so clearly partisan to me, although it is certainly ideological. If you go back to the archives, though, it is interesting to see how 9/11 radically altered Charles Johnson’s worldview.