Erdogan's game

A lot of people rejoiced when Edrogan said that he won't run for president, and instead will have one of his men run for it instead, but I wasn't. What He is doing is basically cornering the country in a very well played game: He stays as PM, the President is one of his men, and whatever changes or reforms he wants to do to Turkey will get rubber stamped by the new president, as opposed to the old one who vetoed more than 200 ammendments to the constitution and new laws proposed by Edrogan's party. It seems that this new direction will force the turkish army to confront Edrogan and his men and start another military coup with a very secular transitional government for the next 5 years. But ecen that is unclear, because the military would be gambeling against the people's wishes and it would shake Turkey's world image as a Democracy. The whole thing is entirely messy, and it won't be over anytime soon!

44 Comments on Erdogan's game

  1. Adam B.
    April 26, 2007 at 9:58 am

    Yep!

    And some people are wondering why the European populations are resisting a turkish EU membership tooth and nail…!

    Reply
  2. Libyan Warrior
    April 26, 2007 at 12:55 pm

    Libyan Warrior Pasha is ready for the Sultan!

    I totally support Erdogan, and the God fearing folk of turkey. much prop’s.

    Reply
  3. brooklynjon
    April 26, 2007 at 12:55 pm

    For better or worse, I believe Turkey’s admission into the EU would pretty much officially be the beginning of the end of Christendom in Europe. As a non-Christian, a non-Muslim, and a non-European, I don’t have a dog in that fight. I’m just watching from the sidelines. But that’s how I see it.

    Reply
  4. Hamako
    April 26, 2007 at 1:05 pm

    Dude, although you are not undermining the army’s power in turkey, I think you are undermining the people’s trust in the army. Buyukan will moderate the Islamicisation.

    Reply
  5. Nomad
    April 26, 2007 at 1:45 pm

    Turkey as EU membership, no way, we have enough problems with the former Cold-war states, but it is Ok with a commercial partnership

    Reply
  6. Manuela
    April 26, 2007 at 1:53 pm

    If Turkey will reject secularism then Europe will slide even faster than I thought towards Eurabia. All in all Islamism is a very serious issue in Europe, and the radical cells try hard (surely some succeed) to infiltrate Eastern Europe. Western Europe is on the verge to collapse under the pressure of Saudi, Pakistani radicals with UK, France being the best examples and to a lesser extent Netherlands (remember Van Gogh, Hirshi Ali?) Germany and other countries.

    On the other hand, if Turkey will go down the tube then maybe, just maybe we will be courageous enough to say things as they are; this war on terror is actually a war against extremist Islam. Most of us may not be observant Christians anymore (just Christian by birth) living in a secular, post modern world, the Jihadists have a very different perspective on world, and seem to be trapped in a frame of mind, we have had during the Crusaders…. tough times ahead…

    Reply
  7. Turk
    April 26, 2007 at 2:17 pm

    SM – you think that Ak party has not thought about a confrontation with the armed forces? ha! A general has issued a statement a few days ago, they will be keeping a much closer watch on the government from now on. Gul doesn’t actually have that strong of a religious agenda, not as religious as Erdogan anyways. He will also have to moderate his views quite a bit due to the feeling of the presidential post. Even though these guys might not be leading secular thinkers they know how to play secular.
    The reason why people are worrying is because his wife has a headscarf which in my opinion is completely irrelevant. If Ak party becomes a bit more moderate now that they have more responsibility, things will go relatively smoothly. There is a good chance of that happening. If not it will be a bumpy ride after the elections but nothing serious like a coup to worry about…(and many people saw this coming btw)

    Reply
  8. I_Caca_dau
    April 26, 2007 at 3:33 pm

    booga booga

    Reply
  9. Adam B.
    April 26, 2007 at 4:21 pm

    Just the thought of the army having any kind of political role… ‘shiver’!!! :(

    Why is it so hard for democracies to ban the electoral participation of parties whose program revolves around a limitation of democracy itself?!

    Reply
  10. Lutoklawski
    April 26, 2007 at 5:18 pm

    Adam, I completely disagree with your statement on Turkish EU membership.
    It is precisely further negotiations and (hopefully) membership, that will lead Turkey on the right path.
    One thing is clear, though:
    Accession must not happen until both Turkey and EU is ready. Both have a long way to go, but it is exactly this way that will bring changes. National politicians using Turkeys accession to their political advantage at home, is playing a cheap game, that will ultimately hurt both the EU and Turkey.

    Reply
  11. Craig
    April 26, 2007 at 5:54 pm

    Lutoklawski,

    Accession must not happen until both Turkey and EU is ready. Both have a long way to go, but it is exactly this way that will bring changes.

    When will turkey be “ready” ?

    I agree with BrooklynJon. If turkey joins the EU, Europe as we know it will cease to exist. I disagree with him that it has anything to do with Christianity, though. I don’t consider Europeans to be observant Christians anyway, for the most part. Of all the Europeans I’ve ever know, only one was an actual believing Christian. I think the issue is Islam. Islam is not compatible with secular democracy. And therefore Turkey will never be “ready” to join the EU, unless the people of Turkey become something other than Muslims which isn’t evry likely, is it? If Turkey is allowed to join the EU it will just become a gateway for Muslims – radical and non-radical alike although there don’t actually seem to be many “moderate” Muslims using my definition of the word – to flood into the rest of Europe by the millions.

    There aren’t any “negotiations” that can make that go away.

    Although, honestly, I don’t care if Europe allows Turkey into the EU or not. The EU couldn’t be much more hostile to my country (the US) no matter what happened. And it might even provoke another war in Europe when one or more of the players decide they don’t really want to be Eurabia, after all. Which from a Machiavellian standpoint (the Euros love Machiavelli, right?) is a good thing for America. So long as we do the right thing, this time, and leave the Europeans to sort themselves out come what may. Russia is not going to much like having Islamists on one side and the Chinese on another.

    Reply
  12. Nomad
    April 26, 2007 at 6:30 pm

    thanks for caring Craig, but you see the situation through your perspectiv prism : your conflict in ME ; you can’t read the situation from our perspective, it can’t be more dangerous because we are nearer, or less problematic if we are solving the problems of integration, identity, religion… I remain optimist as far as France is concerned ; not saying all will go well soon, but it is on the way.

    as far as Turkey, not mentioning its religion, I don’t want them in EU cause of its numerous population ; it will make one of the most populated states in EU, therefore with the most numerous representation in our parliament and decisional posts in EU, and as I said we have enough problems already to make our 27 states agreeing on a subject ; and Turkey situation between Asia , Russia and ME make it having a too different point of view than in our western places

    Reply
  13. Craig
    April 26, 2007 at 8:49 pm

    Hi Nomad,

    as far as Turkey, not mentioning its religion, I don’t want them in EU cause of its numerous population ; it will make one of the most populated states in EU, therefore with the most numerous representation in our parliament and decisional posts in EU

    You didn’t say why that’s a problem for you, though :)

    thanks for caring Craig, but you see the situation through your perspectiv prism : your conflict in ME ; you can’t read the situation from our perspectiv

    Well, you are the one who recommended to me that I be more Machiavellian :P

    I personally think that Machiavelli sucks, and that his philosophy is evil, by definition. But there’s no denying that there are some circumstances in which trouble in Europe can actually be in America’s best interests. And whatever happens in Europe, will not harm America’s interests. I don’t think the US has any allies in Western Europe anymore, except on paper. Maybe we never did. Maybe we’ve just been fooling ourselves, all these years. I’d like to claim Britain as an ally but there isn’t a day that goes by that the British press isn’t bashing America and Americans. I don’t believe we have many friends there.

    Reply
  14. tommy
    April 26, 2007 at 10:25 pm

    Turkey! What a difficult mess! Keep Turkey out of the EU; it is best for everyone. The Turks need to resolve the tug of war between the secular/military tradition and political Islam on their own and won’t be happy with the EU meddling in their affairs and the EU doesn’t need another large population of unassimilated Muslims in its realm.

    The irony is that the EU might, through its attempts to weaken the military oligarchy in Turkey in preparation for its entry into the EU, be partly to blame for the rise of a future Islamic state there.

    Reply
  15. Manuela
    April 26, 2007 at 10:51 pm

    Nomad, actually I appreciate Ms Fallaci’s writings but she can hardly be called my favorite. I have friends in France and I listen carefully to the news coming from France about the mistreatment of Jews, and the radicalization of those living in ghettos, Muslims and non Muslims alike. I know first hand how things are in England, and maybe France is not under so much pressure, but please don’t tell me that everything is all right!

    Even if one does not give a s**t on political developments, talks of a Caliphate, and so on, demography cannot be ignored. Check the statistics of the old continent, country by country, and put the info in the larger frame of the cultural and Islamic evolution and then tell me that I am wrong.

    Reply
  16. Nomad
    April 26, 2007 at 10:56 pm

    Craig, what do you want me to say ? if the turks suck ? no, I have one of my best souvenirs of traveling there, and visiting the gorgious Istanbul, the thing is, I am fed up that EU is elarging ! it was quite nicer when we were 10 of us !

    yeah, I can understand that our trouble with agreements inside EU might rejoice US diplomacy :lol: but I hope the new generation coming into power will have a more global vision of our interest and will unify our foreign affairs projects

    Reply
  17. brooklynjon
    April 26, 2007 at 11:55 pm

    Craig,

    I don’t mind your disagreement with me at all. When I said “Christendom”, I wasn’t talking about religiosity, but just what European Christianity has become, which is secular humanism with Christian symbolism. Will Notre Dame and Westminster Abbey be churches 100 years from now? I have significant doubts. I feel more confident about St. Patrick’s Cathedral in NYC. Not 100% confident, mind you, but more confident.

    Personally, I don’t see a whole lot of foreign policy advantage in having Europe remaining weak and dependent on the USA militarily. Our economy is straining mightily defending the world, and it would be nice to have others take up a little more slack than they are now. Worse, though, is that Europe’s military deficiency causes them to rely excessively on democracy. As we are currently engaged with an ideological foe with an impressive martial heritage, it should surprise no one that emphasizing democracy is perceived as a sign of weakness, and is therefore destabilizing.

    But if Europe does degenerate into the internecine warfare that it historically does every few generations, I sure hope the Marines have a plan to stabilize England and France’s nuclear arsenal.

    Reply
  18. Brian H
    April 27, 2007 at 5:25 am

    Instead of talking about “Christendom”, try thinking about the ““Anglosphere” — plus a few occasionally allied non-anglophone European and other nations. Rarely including France, of course.
    ;)

    Reply
  19. nomad
    April 27, 2007 at 7:33 am

    “I sure hope the Marines have a plan to stabilize England and France’s nuclear arsenal”

    come one BJ, you read too much politic fiction novels ; and if anyway that would happen, might another BJ’Dad come to France and enjoy his staying there, while our french women will deturn those puritan GI from their warrior duty, and so you’ll have again plenty of little “frenchmen” on your own soil, as a Troy horse :lol:

    As far as Notre Dame or Westminster, don’t worry, if they will not be churches anymore, they still will be architecture treasures, I bet the new muslin culture will not be dumb enough to blow them up as the Talibans did to Buddha sculptures in Afghanistan, they have the sense of commerce, they like what money can provide, therefore tourists will be still there :lol:

    Reply
  20. Adam B.
    April 27, 2007 at 7:42 am

    The trouble with letting Turkey join the EU is, like Nomad has already pointed out, that Europe already has a large, unruly population of unassimilated turks running around, and since all things are pointing towards either a more religiously one-sided or a more militaristic Turkey, the country itself is growing more and more incompatyible with the ideals of (western) Europe.

    Craig, your views on the Euro-Us relationsship is rather bleak, to say the least. Considering the countries with soldiers stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq, I’d hardly say that Europe is decidedly hostile towards the US. France is one nation that might be described as such, but mainly because both France and the US have a serious ego problem! :) In any case, a strong European AND US/Canadian economy is definately in everyones favor – commerce makes our countries richer and stronger and strengthens our ties.

    Nomad, I agree with most of your views on a turkish EU membership, particularly the problem with a large turkish population having a large vote. Coming from a small nation myself, I have this experience all the time when France/Germany/England decide to ignore all the other members from time to time! ;) Denmark has always been and will always be a strong advocate of the ‘one nation, one vote’ policy…

    Reply
  21. nomad
    April 27, 2007 at 8:01 am

    Manuela,

    Where do you live ? that might explain your paranoïa about our life in EU ; whatever will happen, it’s the world evolution, it doesn’t signify the end of humanhood ; it signifies the beginnings of the end of our roman empire (again), there will be new barbars invaders, be muslins, be chineses… ; and if we want things going ok, we must be prepared to absorb them and convert them to our ways of life ; seems that already chineses that are coming to France are already seducted by our cultural backgrounds and would certainly not destroy them if they invade us ; as far as our muslins, day after days they become more french too, and if we focuse a political will to make them more frenchs, alike the romans did when franks started to invade roman Gaul, inrole them in our infrastructures, give them social rewards when someone deserves it, and you’ll see in century a franco-chineso-magrebino-… country still there, with the same spirit to piss on bloody ango-saxons-pakistano-indiano-chineso… :lol:

    I’ll be interested to see your own statistics compared to the ones I have already shown on this site anyway ;

    Reply
  22. Manuela
    April 27, 2007 at 10:58 am

    Nomad I have expected a civilized reply, not an offense. But hey, if that is all you can do… I am not paranoid, of if I am then everyone from state leaders to political analysts, religious leaders, professors , etc. are paranoid!
    You said that its not big deal and if an empire falls others will follow. Agreed. perhaps is nothing we can do to stop it, but what if we can? Why not try? Why should I want to be a 2nd class citizen, wear abaya, lose my rights as an individual and live in theocracy if I don’t want that?! I think its normal to evolve not regress to the Caliphate era. Too bad you don’t think about the Jews, yeah history should have taught us something by now! What if Teheran will have the nukes? can you say for sure they will never use them on Israel?! As I read even the moderate Arabs and Persians say that most likely they will nuke Israel (returning of the Mahdi, rings a bell?) or what if Jihaddists cells got their hands on nukes? Do we want more Madrid and London type of bombings? What kind of humans are we if we find excuses for such atrocious acts – like, oh its nothing, just an empire going down?! Are you for real?? And yes, I am living in Europe

    Reply
  23. Adam B.
    April 27, 2007 at 11:28 am

    22. Nomad:

    “it doesn’t signify the end of humanhood ;”

    No, but it does represent a regression to a much less civilized state, at least from our point of view, and since it is still “our” lands, we might as well do what we can to avoid such a change…!

    Reply
  24. Manuela
    April 27, 2007 at 11:44 am

    I forgot about the statistics – this is a link to a study published by BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4385768.stm and you might want to check this one too http://muslim-canada.org/muslimstats.html

    Some time ago I listened to one of Brigitte Gabriel’s speech and she said that out of 1 billion Muslims intelligence studies leaked to the press and military analysts show that approx 300 millions support directly or indirectly a massive take over over US, Israel, Occident in general. What they want is as al Banna and Qutb preached – to help us rid of the moral corruption we’re swimming in. Which at first looks like a noble gesture, right? We should check how Christians and Muslims were treated in Spain – and yes, I know they had enjoyed some rights, but they were NOT Muslims equals. And that is exactly what I’ve argued all along.

    You talk about giving them social benefits, which I think they already enjoy since they put they foot in EU, but even if we’ll give them extra benefits (though that would not be fair – why positively discriminate one part of a population over the expense of all?) what can come before God (Allah)? Nothing if you’re a true believer!! Plus one can never reason with a believer (Muslim or not) because faith is one thing and reason is a whole different story. I appreciate the debate, Nomad :)

    Reply
  25. Nomad
    April 27, 2007 at 1:16 pm

    Manuela,

    I didn’t ment offending you, (I have a special vocabulary for, that a few here have already experienced :lol: ) but I find it annoying that people who do not live in France try to conduct our feelings and tell us how better they know our future than us ; we have 2 000 years of invading or wars as inviders history, each time we managed to stay alive as a typical french psychologic entity, that must be our way of understanding how people act, and convice them things can be easier with our approch ; well nevermind, I am a kind of optimist !

    because Israel has problem in ME, it doesn’t imply we should adopt the same bellicose spirit towards our immigrants, we don’t make war if we can solve our problems otherwise, and I am looking for realistic and pacific ways to handle them.

    I don’t mean either to underestimate Israel problems, but they can’t be resolved inside my country.

    Adam B

    you will not regress if your are conscient and feel strong about your identity

    Reply
  26. Lutoklawski
    April 27, 2007 at 10:47 pm

    I still think you guys largely underestimate the soft bargaining power of the EU. Some of your assesments about the “dark, muslim Turkey” are based on prejudices rather then facts. Once again, remember that alot will be changed the day Turkey is ready for accession.

    Reply
  27. BrooklynJon
    April 27, 2007 at 11:27 pm

    I think people thought the same thing about Neville Chamberlain’s soft bargaining power. After all, he had Adolf’s signature on that piece of paper.

    Neville ultimately came to realize that soft bargaining works best when you’re holding a stick that’s bigger than the other guy’s stick.

    But I wish Europe good luck. Particularly after all that yammering about America interfering with other nation’s internal affairs, I anticipate no invasion of Normandy this time around.

    Reply
  28. Nomad
    April 27, 2007 at 11:56 pm

    “I anticipate no invasion of Normandy this time around.”

    thank you daddy, we can make our tea party all by ourselves now

    Reply
  29. cut snake
    April 28, 2007 at 12:33 am

    Adam B at #9

    That is the typical catch 22 0f any democracy
    Free speech free elections …if any scumbag party wins majority in parliament
    (be they islamofascists or nazis ot whatever) that is the end of that society , because that was the last free election .

    Reply
  30. cut snake
    April 28, 2007 at 12:41 am

    Craig , not all Euros are anti American, there are plenty of Pro US blogs out there.
    In dutch , german , and (I know this is hard to believe, French!!) :)

    Reply
  31. BrooklynJon
    April 28, 2007 at 2:35 am

    Nomad,

    That’s the thing. I’m not so sure you can. Most European countries spend virtually nothing on defense. If diplomacy fails, there is no military threat to fall back on, which makes it more likely that diplomacy will fail. That’s my point.

    Reply
  32. nomad
    April 28, 2007 at 6:03 am

    try to be a little positive for once ; I never met someone win anything with a pessimist view

    Reply
  33. nomad
    April 28, 2007 at 6:27 am

    Cut snake,

    yeah, unbelievebale,
    you could make a stat with our elections results,
    anti-A : different parts of extrem left : maximum, 10 %, Sego, a part of her results, about 10 %, so in fine that makes, 20 to 30 % maximum of our population

    the rest is either indifferent or pro, pro doesn’t mean non critical, as one adage here says “qui aime bien, châtie bien” (who loves at best, chastises at best)

    the thing is that we can find more anti -french blogs and medias on the american side, and the feeling that some americans may have about the anti-american attitude on our side, is somehow a response to the institutionalised french-bashing in their country

    Reply
  34. Adam B.
    April 28, 2007 at 7:11 am

    26. Nomad:

    Two things: 1 – a shift in population. Although this is still pretty far into the future, and may change if 3rd generation turks adjust to their adopted countries better, this may well change the make-up of the western european countries. 2 – a politically correct yielding attitude from the indeginous populations, something already seen on a widespread basis in most european countries.

    I hope you’re right, I really do, but things aren’t looking too good as it is – letting Turkey join the EU will not better the situation!

    Basically, they share very little of our cultural/religious/democratic/scientific tradition (which is already spread pretty thin in the EU as it is!) and are moving further away on a daily basis. A small, intellectual elite, largely based in Istanbul, would fit in pretty well, but 90% of the country is in most respects closer to the ME than to Europe, and thus not compatible…

    Reply
  35. Nomad
    April 28, 2007 at 8:10 am

    I never ment to allow Turkey joins EU, anyway if the possibility may occur, it will be subjected with a referendum, and one may knows how referendum happens to show by us : “NO”

    Reply
  36. iggi
    June 13, 2007 at 5:44 am

    The Turks and their islam are de facto extremely xenophobic – we watch them in their country & in many other countries in Europe: The commerce & Finance politicians want to smuggle Turkey in the EU but the folks don’t – is this really a true democracy?
    Why do these politicians ignore their own people? Money talks!!! But now in Europe, Sarkozy is the only one who explicitly supports the will of his people.
    The Ottoman Empire is already invading Vienna again and who cares?
    I truly believe: it all depends on who YOU are as to argue about whether you’re for or against Turkey’s exalted desire to be a EU-member: either you’re a Turk yourself or you are an Unhappy outsider married to the “Happy, erotic turkish community”, or you’re even paid by certain trade branches, a Lobbyist, Corporate America with their Arm/Angst-Industry or a sponsored government employee? Please, observe sturdily the EuroVision Song Contest 2007!!! Voilà, mis amigos, c’est tout! Bedankt – SayoNara.

    Reply
  37. iggi
    June 13, 2007 at 5:57 am

    The Turks and their islam are de facto extremely xenophobic – we watch them in their country & in many other countries in Europe: The commerce & Finance politicians want to smuggle Turkey in the EU but the folks don’t – is this really a true democracy?
    Why do these politicians ignore their own people? Money talks!!! But now in Europe, Sarkozy is the only one who explicitly supports the will of his people.
    The Ottoman Empire is already invading Vienna again and who cares?
    I truly believe: it all depends on who YOU are as to argue about whether you’re for or against Turkey’s exalted desire to be a EU-member: either you’re a Turk yourself or you are an Unhappy outsider married to the “Happy, erotic turkish community”, or you’re even paid by certain trade branches, a Lobbyist, Corporate America with their Arm/Angst-Industry or a sponsored government employee? Please, observe sturdily the EuroVision Song Contest 2007!!! Voilà, mis amigos, c’est tout!

    Reply
  38. Ekrem
    February 17, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    I think that Abdullah Gül has done a great job so far

    Reply
  39. turk
    December 19, 2009 at 10:15 am

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    Reply

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