I am too lazy to write a post about it, so I am quoting this convo between me and Roba:
Roba: what happened with super tuedaySam: hehehe
No one can make heads or tails of itRoba: yeah
i readSam: this is what I know
obama won 13hillary won 9but she won new york and claiforniabig voteshowever, thanks to democratic primary rules of "reward all
the kids for playing"Obama will get many of her delegates as wellthis will leave the situation almost unresolvedwith them having comparatively equal number of
delegatesObama will claim he got the delegate votehillary will say she got the popular voteshe will boast about masschusetts, where Obama was endorsed
by Kerry and the kennedy'sand he will talk about winning the south, especially
Georgiawhich no one thought his black ass could winin the end, nothing got resolved as expectedit will carry on until the conventionand that's when Hillary will probably shut down Obama with
the number of superdelegates (votes given to party members only that count as
much as regular delegates do)and she will become the nomineeto which Mccain will beat her ass like a pimp does to his
hoes come november, and that is all she wrote.
Or am I missing something?
Yep, you’re missing something: the difference in result between “precinct” and “caucus” voting.
You can dig it out here State by State Results if you look down at the very bottom, you can find out which states vote by the caucus system and which vote by the precinct system.
A caucus is where you have to drag your sorry a$$ to a meeting hall, and stand around with a bunch of true believers, and vote in public, or stand up, literally, for your candidate. A precinct is where you make a quick stop on the way to or from work, and vote privately.
There is a nice graphic representation of each state in the Washington Post print edition that I cannot find on their website. Obama did very well, but he did MUCH BETTER in the caucuses.
Also, FOX was reporting a discrepancy between the exit poll data (where people were asked to say for whom they had voted) and the ultimate results.
Something similar happened on the Republican side. The right-wing talking heads have gone spastic over John McCain’s showing, saying he is not conservative enough for them, and they’d rather lose than see him in office. They have thrown their support mainly Mitt Romney, and declared that if Romney does not win the nomination, they will vote for Hillary.
Romney won in caucus states, only.
People who have lives vote differently from those who are available to spend a workday at a political meeting.
“People who have lives vote differently from those who are available to spend a workday at a political meeting.”
Very true, and something I have not thought a whole lot about previously. No one really talks about disenfranchisement of people who have jobs, but its a big problem particularly, as you note, in caucus states. I wonder if there is a systemic bias in caucusing rather than secret ballot voting.
It will be Hillary and McCain. I, for one, support a sixteen-year plan. Hillary in ’08, Obama in ’16. That might just give us enough time to recover. Romney is an android…some (possibly) interesting trivia: contrary to expectation, Hillary did really well among Hispanics, while Obama scored much better than expected among white males.
Insert your favorite “inter-minority-competition/latent-white-male-misogyny” theory here.
I think you hit er right on the nail, with no Obama I mean and no Bloomy burger..
McCain won’t beat either Obama or Clinton.
“McCain won’t beat either Obama or Clinton.”
McCain is going to thrash Hillary if she gets the nomination due to super delegates. McCain will also pick up a large portion, maybe even a majority, of the hispanic vote if he runs against Obama.
“contrary to expectation, Hillary did really well among Hispanics”
?
That is what everyone expected. Unless Huckabee or Romney come back Obama will have a lot of work to do if he is going to pick up the hispanic vote.
Verrry interesting.
I met my first Obama operative today. There is an organization, Maryland Women for Obama.
Key points:
1. We know we can’t walk away from Iraq.
2. The talking heads may be mad at McCain, but McCain hews to the party line where it counts the most to conservatives, and against values Democrats care about.
3. The best indicator for a successful presidency is how well a candidate controls his campaign.
I am not sure that I buy these points at all, but I can tell that the organization is there, they know their candidate’s weak points, and they know what the answers need to be, even if the answers need to be at variance with what the candidate is saying right now.
This campaign just got a whole lot more interesting.
I agree that McCain can’t beat either Clinton or Obama – too much same old, same old; plus, if Huckabee signs on as his running-mate, he could drive away centrists in some states.
“That is what everyone expected.”
Obviously not everyone…
I can tell you that in this area neither Clinton nor Obama are liked and since this part of Ohio has made the decison the last few times I do think that McCain will thrash either.
Hillary is a divisive, shrill-talking, manipulative, ruthless woman. If the Democrats nominate her, she will not win. There is not alot of excitement for a Clinton Restoration. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, he will probably win.
Good analysis, you make more sense than some of the pundits who have been on TV
Spanish Dancer,
Hillary did really well among Hispanics, while Obama scored much better than expected among white males.
Hillary did well with old white people, and Obama did well among young white people. I’m somewhere in between, and I’d consider voting for Obama. I wouldn’t vote for Hillary unless somebody held a gun to my head.
The Hispanic vote is interesting. I assume Hispanics chose Hillary over Obama because she represents the “establishment” of the Democratic party, which is generally a “safe” vote for a lifelong Democrat. That’s precisely why I would vote for Obama, but wouldn’t vote for Hillary. Obama isn’t an establishment candidate.
Republicans who bitch McCain isn’t conservative enough so they’d rather lose the election are nuts. He “isn’t* conservative enough, socially, but he’s OK fiscally and his foreign policy is good. He’s a pretty typical Libertarian except for a few issues. Border security, second amendment are the main places where he doesn’t live up to Libertarian expectations. Social conservatives are going to hate his ass no matter what he does.
I wonder if Republicans who’d rather have Hillary win than vote for McCain, expect her to fall on her face and give Republicans an easy win in 2012? That’s probably a good plan, but we can’t afford 4 years of Clinton governance right now.
Craig,
We survived four years of Carter, which proves that we can survive four years of pretty much anyone.
Who cares who wins the US presidential elections. Either party will continue more of the same. Waste of time.
“I assume Hispanics chose Hillary over Obama because she represents the “establishment” of the Democratic party”
He isn’t going to get a majority of the hispanic vote in the primaries and it isn’t about the ‘establishment’.
““That is what everyone expected.”
Obviously not everyone…”
OK, everyone but you. I have not heard or read anywhere that anybody expected Obama to carry the hispanic vote. The majority will go with Hillary.
eheh, you could immigrate for 4 years, I wonder wich country you would choose though
uh, yes, I think the “radical” republicains aim to vote Bilary, so that they get a chance to prepare their real candidate, be Hunter, be Thompson, for 2012, cause they cant’stand McCain
“Mitt Romney offers a valuable lesson for ambitious without backbone who try their luck regularly Republican side, believing that their personal fortune, and as a pure political composition, will excite the electorate. Mitt has spent the last two Super account tuesday, more than a million dollars a Republican delegate. “A rather expensive hobby” concluded commentator Chris Matthews on NBC. Romney, who had done his experience in the business the key to its credibility in the economic, fell on a bone. “When we talk about economics, McCain said about his rival, it is better to look like a co-worker that guy who comes to turn.”
traduction google
seems McCain has some sense of humor
I have a different opinion of the fued in the republican party. It’s all for the press folks, it sells air time and fills the papers. It isn’t real and will dissappear just as soon as there is a nominee. The only ones talking about it are pundits, journalists, and democrats. The real party isn’t even saying any of the things that are being heard, most of us are just scratching our heads over it. The radicals only account for less than 12% of the party and I’m sure that moderates will more than make up for that percentage come November if they really do boycat which I don’t believe they will. OTOH if Billary goes to a brokered convention and steals the nomination like it looks like is being planned, it might not be the republicans who’s party suffers a boycott! Just saying….
eheh, you could immigrate for 4 years, I wonder wich country you would choose though
If you’re talking about me, I would choose Mexico. Easy to get back across the border from there if I have any unexpected problems, and I like Mexicans anyway
Republicans have a lot more options than Democrats, because we don’t have the same “high standards”.
I heard on the TV that Mexicans will not vote for a black candidate – don’t ask me, I don’t get it.
If it ends up being Hillbilly and McCain, at least they are both pit bulls and won’t pull any punches – they may need to keep their lies straight though.
I, too, agree that McCain will win. He is a practically-minded person and I think that this will win over many Democrats, and not just the ones who wouldn’t like Hillary.