Today is the day Michael Sulliman gets appointed president of Lebanon, ending a tumultuous year of political instability in Lebanon. We won't discuss here the compromise they've achieved, because I am sick and tired of watching M14 get their asses handed to them and then have them smile to the camera and claim that they are "not losing" and that "co-existence" has been achieved once again. Well, good for you Saad: They get to keep their weapons, the favorable arabic popular opinion and power over the country, while, you, well, you get to not have your downtown business disrupted. Ohhh….Great fuckin win. I mean sure, Having Aoun realizing that he won't ever be President is nice and all, but given how discredited he is, this is no trophy!
Now, if I was Saad, and I wanted the armed Shia faction of my population disarmed and without support, well, I would be facing two big problems:
1) Hezbollah has a ton of weapons, and I have almost zilch in terms of weapons or militia.
2) Hezbollah is championing the palestinian cause, and that's getting him support on the arab street.
So, what I would need is a way to get them to disarm, while eradicating their support in the arab street. Hmm.. now how would one do that?
Simple: Go to the palestinian militias inside the different camps, find the people leading the Fatah militia and make a deal with them: You will make sure they get more rights and work permits and abilities to improve their living conditions, and in exchange they would engage in a limited time armed conflict with Hezbollah, which you will also finance and support monetarily. You frame it all in terms of a greater war between sunnis and shhia, and you inform them that this is their chance to avenge their compatriots in Ghaza, by taking it out on the local Iranian-supported militia, the one that sides itself with Hamas in their goals (Hezbollah).
The Palestinians do have the numbers and the weapons, and they would probably do the fighting in exchange for some sweet deal that the M14 forces would give them. The confrontation between Fatah and Hezbollah would concentrate Hezbollah's resources and fighters on the various Lebanese refugee camps, and they will naturally spare no expense to win. Imagine the headlines as every lil supporter of Hezbollah because of Palestine turns the news to see the Hezbollah Shia killing the same Palestinians they claim to protect. Hezbollah's reputation gets instantly tarred, people-confused by what they are seeing- will start listening to people who will talk to them about the Zio-Iranian conspiracy and how the Shia are the thorn in Islam's side that needs to be removed in order for the religion to be whole again. The Entire arab world will turn on its Shia population in the areas that it could, and massive amount of aid and support will suddenly be bestowed on the M14 government, they who want to stop the Iranians from taking over arab land. It's a fantastic solution and given how stupid our population is, it can not fail. Sure, it's a completely immoral and unethical solution, has no respect for humanity, employs the dirtiest of propaganda sectarian tactics and will lead to the Sunni-Shia war and the eventual genocide of all the Shia in the arab peninsula, or vice versa, but hey, the situation would be resolved once and for all. How could that possibly be a bad thing?