Tomorrow is the Referendum on the MB’s constitutional draft, which the great President Morsy wishes to pass on two phases with a week in between the results of the first phase and the second, which makes no sense in terms of security and Voter manipulation. But for him, and his people and allies, this is it. This is the end Game. In their silly little mind if they pass this referendum by hook or crook they have won everything.
I am of the argument that they have already lost. Here are my reasons:
- They don’t have the votes: Given that the secular side in Egypt has finally unified itself, and are all against the referendum, there is no way the Islamists can win this vote fair and square. Their numbers are 7.5 million votes, the combined votes of the secular voters is beyond that of 14 million (sabahy, moussa, shafiq and abulfotouh votes, all saying NO). Which is why they will attempt voters fraud..and about that..
- They don’t have the legitimacy: The constitution is approved by an illegal Constiotuint assembly, created by an illegal parliament elected in an illegal election, and 1/3 of its members are opposed to it. There are no international Observers, the Majority of the Judges are not joining, with reportedly only 20% of Egypt’s judges will supervise, which is why they need to conduct it on two phases, which is not only logistically disastrous, but also technically illegal: The referendum is supposed to be held for one day only. Everyone expects fraud, especially with the absence of the minimum voting requirement to pass this. No one sees this as a legitimate referendum.
- They don’t have the bases: The MB has divided the referendum states on the two phases, with all the solidly and leaning NO governorates in the first phase, and the Islamist strongholds on the second phase. This way if the results are overwhelmingly NO in the First phase, they can fraud the vote as they wish in the second phase. They are delusional. First of all, everyone is wise to their trick, so people will be keeping a closer eye on the second phase anyway. Secondly, the second phase governorates are also now against them, and they will find out the hard way.
- Their tools no longer work: The Islamists have long depended on Mosque mobilization and Guidance of religious leaders, both of which are being challenged by the people. Mosque sermons by Imams trying to push for a YES vote are being interrupted by the mosque goers, with clashes ensuing. Today it happened in Tanta, Mahalla, and Alexandria, where the Salafi symbol AlMahallawy is still hiding in the mosque from the clashes that took place after his YES vote sermon. Imagine this happening in Egypt? Islamists no longer scare Egyptians, which is why the Islamists are so terrified.
- Their propaganda sucks: Where to start? From the MB claiming that all the protesters and rejecters of the constitutions are Christians? Or from their twitter accounts showing a photo shopped pictures of Pornstar Gianna Miachaels as an Egyptian expat yes voter? Or that Gehad Hadad, their face in western media, was quoting Nazi propagandist Carl Schmitt today on his twitter account?
- There will be no stability with this constitution: Already people are fighting on the streets over it, do you think those people will magically disappear if the constitution passes? Even the Stability voters are getting that message.
- They have bet all against the House: You want to rule Egypt? You can’t fight with all of its institutions at once. You can not alienate the people, the opposition parties, the Media, the workers, the army, your own advisors and ministers and try to incite sectarianism and expect that everything will work out your way. You never take the House. The House always wins..
It’s Game Over, Islamists. If this referendum fails and it will fail, prepare for the wrath of the people and the in-fighting amongst your very loose alliance. You have shown your hand, and the people don’t want what you are selling. Best of Luck. You will need it.